Mexico will enter recession and lose investment grade: Alejandro Werner

“In every change of government there has been a reduction in growth of almost two percentage points, we are going to have it again,” he indicated in his participation in the Economic Outlook Seminar 2025 of the ITAM.

He pointed out that this is exacerbated by the arrival of Donald Trump and the negotiation that will have to be done with him on security and migration issues and with a judicial reform that causes uncertainty.

Furthermore, an issue that worries him is the fiscal aspect, that although there was discipline in almost the entire government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, in the end there was an unnecessary and very high fiscal expansion.

“President (Claudia) Sheinbaum is left with a very large fiscal deficit and it leaves her with many important inertial spending pressures,” he said.

In that sense, he also estimates that in the absence of a tax reform, before 2027 or at the beginning, Mexico will lose its investment grade, “it is not the end of the world, but it will clearly continue to generate significant pressure in financial terms.” “.