Jan. 10 () –
The Earth is halfway to reaching the heat of the Pliocene -with ice-free lollies- in just 150 years, after recording another record year of high temperatures in 2024, according to NASA analysis.
Global temperatures in 2024 were 1.28 degrees Celsius higher than the agency’s 20th century baseline (1951-1980), which surpasses the record set in 2023.
The new record comes after 15 consecutive months (June 2023 to August 2024) of monthly temperature records, an unprecedented spell of heat.
NASA scientists further estimate that the Earth in 2024 will be approximately 1.47 degrees Celsius warmer than the average for the mid-19th century (1850-1900). For more than half of 2024, average temperatures were more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the baseline, and the annual average, with mathematical uncertainties, may have beaten the level for the first time.
“The Paris Agreement on climate change sets out efforts to stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius in the long term. To put it in perspective, temperatures during warm periods on Earth three million years ago, when sea levels were dozens of feet higher than today, they were only about 3 degrees Celsius warmer than preindustrial levels,” he said in a statement Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. “We are halfway to reaching Pliocene-level heat in just 150 years.”
The Pliocene began 5.33 million years ago and ended 2.59 million years ago. The average sea levels were then 25 meters above current levels due to the thawing of the poles.
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
Scientists have concluded that the warming trend of recent decades is due to carbon dioxide, methane and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases. In 2022 and 2023, Earth experienced record increases in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, according to a recent international analysis. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from pre-industrial levels in the 18th century of about 278 parts per million to about 420 parts per million today.
Temperatures in individual years can be influenced by natural climate fluctuations such as El Niño and La Niña, which alternately warm and cool the tropical Pacific Ocean. The strong El Niño that began in the fall of 2023 helped push global temperatures above previous records.
The heat surge that began in 2023 continued to exceed expectations in 2024, Schmidt said, even though the El Niño subsided. Researchers are working to identify contributing factors, including potential climate impacts from the January 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption and pollution reductions, that may change cloud cover and how solar energy is reflected back. return to space.
“Not every year will break records, but the long-term trend is clear,” Schmidt said. “We are already seeing the impact in extreme rainfall, heatwaves and increased risk of flooding, which will continue to worsen as emissions continue.”
NASA compiles its temperature record using surface air temperature data collected from tens of thousands of weather stations, as well as sea surface temperature data acquired by ship- and buoy-based instruments. These data are analyzed using methods that take into account the varied distance between temperature stations around the world and the effects of urban warming that could bias the calculations.
Add Comment