At first glance it would seem that not much has happened over the past twelve months in Colombia, at least in terms of the behavior of opinion reflected in the surveys. Beyond specific variations between one measurement and anothercitizens maintain their usual general concerns, thereby persisting in their largely pessimistic view of how things are going in the country.
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But a closer examination reveals important changes in people’s perceptions. This is shown by the most recent installment of the bimonthly survey that the Invamer firm has been carrying out for more than 30 years in the largest capitals, which came to light last week.
The results agree with those of other investigations of the same order that distinguish between what is observed on the surface and the existence of underlying currents. To put it in a sentence, the implicit verdict is that the Colombian society of the end of 2024 views the issues that interest it differently, so certain numbers look like they did before.
The photography
In the present case, two out of three people think that the situation in the national territory is getting worse and only 23 percent adopt an optimistic mood. For more than a decade the negative impression far exceeds the positive one, and even in some periods the distance between one and the other has been even wider than now.
Among what most influences the grades are chapters such as public order, the economy, the functioning of the Government and the political system, corruption and the coverage of basic needs. With few exceptions, The grades are more bad than good, Therefore, it is better to look at recent trends.
These show that both urban insecurity and guerrilla warfare – a generic term that encompasses irregular armed groups – or drug trafficking are a cause for greater concern. In contrast, what is linked to the pocketbook is less worrying, something clearly related to a slightly more vigorous growth rate and an inflation whose pace has decreased significantly.
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For example, at the end of 2023, 80 percent of those surveyed indicated that the economic situation was worsening, a figure that dropped to 68 percent in mid-December. Factors like interest rates falling or acceptable job performance also influence this assessment.
On the social policy side there are several alarms that are going off. Specifically, there is a deterioration in the image regarding the quality and coverage of public services or child care. No less disturbing is the construction of popular housing, which was always seen positively until a year and a half ago, at which time the perception became negative.
Health deserves special mention, since opinion considers that a significant deterioration has taken place. If a couple of years ago the difference between those who considered that the issue was developing poorly and those who did not was 24 percentage points, Now the gap is 49 points.
Once the characterization is done, two more elements deserve to be taken into account. The first is that 52 percent of those surveyed confess that they have thought about leaving the country, a figure that is among the highest in Latin America.
monetary poverty
However, while the idea of emigrating has become mainstream, people are happier with their personal reality. In response to the question asked by Invamer of “You are satisfied with your standard of living, that is, with all the things you can buy and do”57 percent answer affirmatively, levels that have not been observed for about four years.
Such a disparity between an unfavorable collective perception and a favorable individual perception is not exclusive to Colombia, but in our case it is more pronounced than in other latitudes. Those who have examined the matter in more detail They point out that this reflects a dichotomy between the precariousness of what it is believed that the State can offer and what each person can be capable of when it comes to taking care of themselves.
Leadership matters
That said, the public constantly examines the actions of their political leaders and retains the desire that voting serves to achieve change. An important milestone this year was the arrival of the new mayors and governors, after the regional elections at the end of 2023.
Although there are exceptions, the group that started management on January 1 tends to be better valued than the one that left. This is particularly evident in the case of Medellín, Bucaramanga and Cali.
Everything indicates that the renewal of local leaders had a positive influence on the spirit of the respective citizens. Overall, this measure of hope would have served to reduce pessimism in the national aggregate.
Be that as it may, Gustavo Petro’s figures draw the attention of observers. Although different polls show that disapproval rates for his work are higher than favorable rates, these have remained relatively constant. Regarding the Invamer poll, the data for December was 60 and 34 percent, respectively.
“One can say that there is general pessimism in the country and that the Government is relenting on all issues, but Petro resists,” says expert Miguel Silva. “Even compared to the levels it had in August – when it fell to 29 percent – it has shown a recovery that is not irrelevant,” duck.
The saying goes that comparisons are hateful, but it is inevitable to make them. At the same time of his corresponding mandate, the support that Iván Duque received was 36 percent and that of Juan Manuel Santos, 35 percent, in his second term. These last two would record significant falls in the final months of their management.
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President Gustavo Petro
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It is striking that support varies greatly depending on the geographical area. Thus, while Antioquia and Santander are considered anti-Petrist territories, in the Caribbean and the Pacific the picture is totally different, because the representative of the Historical Pact is popular.
There is no shortage of contradictions either. For example, the mayor of Barranquilla, Álex Char, has 75 percent approval in his city, according to Invamer. In turn, Petro shows 50 percent support in the same citywhich is the highest in large capitals, even though it is a permanent antagonist of the first.
Knowing whether additional wear and tear will come to the current tenant of the Casa de Nariño is impossible. For now what is clear is that, despite the scandals and controversies, The President achieves the support of a third of the electoratewhich is not negligible.
For the pollster César Caballero, “Not only are there factors that help, such as a macroeconomic situation in which there are improvements, but the fact that many people support and justify it”. The founder of the firm Cifras y Conceptos adds that “The speech about what he wants to do, but they won’t let him, has permeated different sectors.”
Even so, the risks to the presidential image are numerous in the near future. Several scholars consulted agreed that the eventual implosion of the health system, for which the Government would have a high share of responsibility, is taking its toll. Along with the above, more episodes of corruption or a greater disruption of the electricity sector – including possible rationing in the event of a drought – are serious threats.
And the list goes on, since the transition of Colpensiones under the new pension scheme needs to be impeccable. And, of course, there is macroeconomic stability in the midst of a fiscal situation extremely complex that requires keeping the reins of public spending short, just when numerous candidates are beginning to warm up and the left aspires to continue in power.
(Read more: Nuevo Minhacienda maintains the line of seeking greater rate reductions)
Place your bets
Because there is no doubt that the 2026 electoral calendar will determine much of what happens next year. To date, the only thing that is clear is that all options are open, especially in a scenario in which there will be multiple applicants.
This forecast makes a second round feasible, especially if the votes are scattered among many candidates. Because of itbeyond the fact that everyone’s objective is to winthe important thing is to pass the first cut, so the 30 percent that whoever obtains the Petrista nod would receive is nothing insignificant.
However, we must be careful with certain assumptions in the midst of a changing and dynamic reality. Analyst Camilo Granada thinks that the support that the President obtains today “will be difficult to endorse, so it depends on how polarized the country is.”
Furthermore, the political scientist maintains that, “As things stand and with so much time remaining, it is most likely that the opposition will win, although the big question is whether it will be represented by someone from the center left, the center right or the hard right”. Once again, the big unknown is whether the center will be able to offer an attractive option so that the same thing as in 2022 does not happen to it, when it ended up being divided between the extremes.
(See: National Budget for 2025 already has an official decree, but fiscal doubts remain)
Voting in Colombia.
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From a broad perspective, columnist Héctor Riveros leans towards the view that people will opt for the person who comes with the fewest possible ties. That is, receiving the blessing of a party or a leader like a former president, far from being a guarantee of victory, It almost becomes a certainty of failure.
In the meantime, whoever aspires to wear the tricolor sash will be obliged to read carefully the dark clouds that are gathering on the horizon. “People are worried and afraid about the future, but not because of a ‘revolution’, but because of the accumulation of emergencies such as insecurity, health or public services”Granada emphasizes.
And it is for this reason that the opinion thermometer at the end of 2024 becomes a key element to understand what Colombians want and what topics keep them up at night. More than the ideological approach, what the surveys reveal is the desire for find that person who has the ability to cut several Gordian knots with skill.
What is not in doubt is that the nationalizing vision does not penetrate the citizens. The Invamer poll shows that Colombians are inclined by a large majority of respondents in favor of foreign investment or free trade and that private companies are the ones that receive the highest ratings in the group of institutions.
“Who gets us out of this mess? It is the fundamental question”concludes Riveros. Now what begins is the competition between those who consider they know the correct answer, for which we must tune in to the aspirations of the people.
(See: Commerce, agriculture and public administration boosted economic activity in October)
RICARDO AVILA
Special for EL TIEMPO
In X: @ravilapinto
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