Dec. 17 () –
First map of all Arctic coastal communities and infrastructure shows the vulnerability of the built environment to the threats of climate change over the coming decades.
Erosion is currently the biggest threat to Arctic coasts; some places are already experiencing a erosion of up to 20 meters per year. But sea level rise and changes in storm patterns are predicted to emerge as threats in the coming decades, accompanied by the ever-present threat of thawing permafrost.
The study finds that by 2100, 21% of the 318 settlements that currently exist on Arctic permafrost coasts will suffer damage due to coastal erosion; 45% will be affected by sea level rise; and 77% of Arctic infrastructure will potentially sit on ground that is no longer frozen but crumbling and sinking. The work was published in Earth’s Future.
Many scientists monitor threats to the natural environment north of the Arctic Circle (66.33°N), but little attention has been paid to human presence there, said Annett Bartsch, founder of the Earth research and development company b.geos, who led the study. “The number of people living along the Arctic coasts is comparatively small, but these people are greatly affected by climate change, especially indigenous communities“, said.
To explore what types of infrastructure are in the Arctic and what threats they face, researchers combined satellite and other data sources to map coastal erosion rates, sea level rise projections, and permafrost temperatures and rates. of melting by 2030, 2050 and 2100.
Traditional communities with economies based on hunting and fishing represent 53% of settlements in the Arctic, according to the study. Mining facilities account for another 20%, with military facilities, tourist services and research stations completing the total. “Much of this infrastructure serves people who live further south,” rather than those who live nearby, Bartsch said in a statement.
The new map shows that today, erosion is the dominant threat to coastal communities, with coastlines near these settlements receding an average of 3 meters per year across the Arctic. In some places, erosion rates reach 20 meters.
“Settlements are already affected by the increasing rate of coastal erosion,” Bartsch said. “More buildings and roads will be affected by 2030.”
While the problem of coastal erosion is already evident, the future impacts of sea level rise came as a surprise to researchers. Currently, relative sea levels are falling across the Arctic due to ice mass loss and postglacial rebound, so relatively little research has been done on future sea level rise.
“People often talk about sea level rise in other regions, not the Arctic,” Bartsch said. “But if you look at the numbers, in the long term more settlements in the Arctic will be affected by sea level rise rather than coastal erosion.”
The dangers explored in the study may be exacerbated by other climate threats, such as changes in weather patterns and land subsidence.
“That can cause very important changes to the coast in some areas,” said Rodrigue Tanguy, a b.geos researcher and first author of the study. “For example, along the coasts of Alaska, Canada and Siberia there are a large number of lakes on permafrost. “If subsidence and erosion cause cracks in these lakes, the coastal landscape will be totally different.”
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