Lessons from Assad’s fall to authoritarianism in Latin America

He overthrow of Bashar al-Assad after 24 years in power in Syria It demonstrates the “vulnerability” of authoritarian governments in Latin America despite the support and closeness of nations like Russia and Iran, which have seen their capabilities to safeguard allies in the Middle East and even more so on other continents reduced, experts say.

Countries like Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba are watching what happened in Syria “with great apprehension,” according to Geoff Ramsey, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, a United States research and study center.

“This sends a signal of vulnerability to the Latin American allies of the Assad regime and could weaken the perception of Russia as a reliable guarantor of stability and political, military and economic support,” he told the Voice of America the specialist in security issues, human rights and politics in Latin America.

Assad and before his father Hafez ruled Syria for half a century, but the heir’s rule came to an end this Sunday, when rebel forces successfully launched a lightning offensive that removed him from power.

Assad took refuge on Sunday in Russia, an old political ally that has intervened militarily in Syria since 2015 to defend it from its armed opponents, considered “terrorists” by the Kremlin.

However, neither Moscow nor Iran, another important geopolitical partner of the deposed president, could prevent his fall.

According to Ramsey, the Syrian case “reinforces the theory that no matter how strong or invulnerable an authoritarian government appears from the outside, they all have their weaknesses.”

Russia and Iran, current strategic allies of the governments of Nicolás Maduro, in Venezuela, Daniel Ortega, in Nicaragua, and Miguel Díaz-Canel, in Cuba, supported Assad against his detractors during the last decade, between uprisings and a civil war.

9 years ago, Moscow deployed warplanes to Syria, sent thousands of tons of military equipment and supplies, activated special forces in favor of the Assad government, and helped train Syrian troops, including with military contractor operations.

Now, Russia has accumulated more than two years of war in Ukraine, between military tensions – including nuclear – with neighboring countries and the Western world, which has weakened the scope of its support for Damascus.

Ramsey, for his part, considered that the fall of Assad could motivate international actors, especially in Europe and America, to “reinforce pressure” on Latin American authoritarian governments such as that of Maduro, Ortega and Díaz-Canel.

This coercion would include a possible tightening of economic sanctions, even greater diplomatic isolation and “more determined” support for the internal oppositions of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, said the expert from The Atlantic Council.

The law of “every man for himself”

Tamara Taraciuk Broner, director of the Rule of Law program at the Inter-American Dialogue and an expert on Latin American political affairs, said that the overthrow of Assad sends a message to rulers like Maduro that “no dictator is safe forever, clinging to power.”

He also said he believes that the situation in Syria is a lesson for those who make up authoritarian governments. “Assad disappeared from Syria and did not worry about protecting the criminal structures that kept him in power,” he stressed. VOA.

According to Taraciuk Broner, “at the end of the day, these dictators apply the law of ‘every man for himself’.” He estimated that collaborators of governments like Maduro’s could “start looking outside to understand what their alternatives are and how those alternatives can benefit them” if they support a democratic transition.

The Venezuelan opposition claims to have evidence that He easily defeated Maduro in the July presidential elections. While the socialist leader was proclaimed winner and insists that he will begin a third six-year term in January, his opposition rival, Edmundo González, affirms that He will return to the country of his exile to be sworn in as head of state.

Taraciuk Broner, for his part, considered that there are legal incentives for internal figures in the Maduro government, in case they have not participated in crimes against humanity. “In the end, everyone seeks to save their own skin,” he said.

The wear and tear of power

Maduro anticipated this Monday that sectors of “extremism” in Venezuela would come out to foment a civil war modeled on what happened in Syria, warning the United States that “it will regret” for a century if it supports these alleged plans.

Hours before, his Foreign Ministry said that it was observing “carefully” the events in the Middle Eastern country, hoping that the Syrian people resolve their differences “without external interference or the use of violence.”

Elsa Cardozo, a university professor who is an expert in international relations, highlighted that neither Russia nor Iran are currently capable of “sustaining at all costs” a regime that is geographically and ideologically close, like Assad’s.

In his opinion, the war in Ukraine became “a very strong vacuum of resources” for Moscow, while Tehran, focused on its war tensions with Israel, had its hands tied to do anything else for Assad in at least the last year. .

This impossibility of defending allies is maximized when they are “many kilometers away,” for example, in America, he warned.

“The strategic material limitations of Russia and Iran are much greater at these distances,” said Cardozo, for whom the former Syrian ruler “became a complicated and uncomfortable weight” on the shoulders of his partners in the Eurasian region, also with forces “weakened” armed forces and insufficient popular support.

For the analyst, the governments of Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba “confirmed the limitations” of the allies in times of crisis, despite their many joint projects.

“Authoritarian regimes also wear out, they reach their limit,” he said. And, to top it all off, their collaborators “lose willingness to give their lives for them.”

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