Not even with a change in the Minhacienda would the financing law be saved in Congress

This week the ordinary sessions of the Congress of the Republic will practically end, which although it has a formal agenda until Monday, December 16, sources there assume that it will be reached until that day, since practically everything It would be evacuated on Friday the 13th of the same month, unless extraordinary sessions are called.

With these deadlines, there is a race for the National Government, led by the Ministry of Finance, that seems to be lost, which is why Casa de Nariño is already thinking about cutting the General Budget for 2025. It is about the financing law, fiscal bet that was announced with great fanfare in September, but it was diluted over time and would not be saved even with the departure of Ricardo Bonilla.

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The lack of a resolution that calls for joint sessions of the Senate and Chamber, that there are several archival presentations in the party and that some sectors related to the Petro government refuse to sign the Government presentation, are some of the factors that are playing against the initiative that seeks $12 billion for next year’s PGN.

In a new consultation of sources in the Legislature, Portfolio learned that this project would be falling into the dream of the just, and that before having a public collapse in sessions, they would be choosing not to insist any more and let it fall due to lack of processing, as has happened with other proposals.

The big stick in the wheel is that at this moment, the promoters of the initiative are failing even the internal consensus, given that during the past week, they were unable to obtain the signature of the speakers, including their closest allies, with which reflects the tensions within the Government coalition that play against the tax agenda.

It must also be said that in the Third Committee of the Senate it was already made clear that the chances of success for the financing law are very low, since of the 16 members of this team, 11 have already expressed their intention to vote against the initiative, which would automatically fail, as it did not have the required support.

It should be remembered that the financing law, being linked to the General Budget of the Nation for 2025, requires the endorsements of the two Third and Fourth commissions, of the Senate and Chamber, which are popularly known as the economic commissions. Without these four supports, the project would fail due to lack of consensus.

Although it is already clear that an eventual debate on the financing law would require extra sessions in Congress, from there they warned that if this document is not filed by this week at the latest, it would be difficult to pass before December 31 and therefore it would fall, putting the State’s treasury in trouble again.

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Text changes

During the last few days, the Ministry of Finance has had several approaches with congressmen to discuss their proposals for the project and include some changes, such as the elimination of articles 7, 8 and 9, which sought to establish a fixed rate of 20% for occasional profits in different scenarios.

In addition, article 25 was deleted, which planned to withdraw the VAT exemption for hybrid vehicles, retaining it only for electric vehicles, measure criticized for its negative impact on the automotive sector.

Plenary of the House of Representatives in the Congress of the Republic.

Pedro Vargas

Regarding the Wealth Tax, it was agreed to maintain the current threshold of 72,000 Tax Value Units (UVT), discarding the Executive’s initial proposal to reduce it to 40,000 UVT. This adjustment reflects a more moderate position, agreed upon between the Ministry of Finance and the economic commissions, seeking to minimize the impact on certain taxpayers.

Likewise, although carbon and betting taxes would be maintained and online gambling, these taxes would be implemented under gradual principles, distributed over three to five years, to avoid an abrupt impact on the sectors involved.

Trimming or freezing

In the event that the financing law finally collapses, the National Government will have no other way than to remember the $12 billion that depends on this project in the General Budget of the Nation or else it is exposed to these accounts falling by the wayside. violate the constitutional principle of fiscal balance.

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To put it simply, the laws that govern the PGN require that income cannot be less than expenses. This in order to guarantee that the stability of public finances is maintained and in the future there is not so much dependence on debt, as is happening right now, to guarantee that the State complies with its projects.

Portafolio also spoke with government sources, who stated that although the outgoing minister Ricardo Bonilla said at the time that these $12 billion could be frozen while a tax reform is defined in the future, the most responsible solution is to cut that moment sharply. and avoid risks with risk rating agencies in the future.

Ministry of Finance and Public Credit.

Photo: CEET – Néstor Gómez

We must not forget that a review of the Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee to the 2025 budget accounts concluded that the errors of the past could be repeated, since there are estimates above the proven capacities in the Budget that is about to be regulated by the Ministry of Finance, which should be adjusted through a severe cut in spending .

“The projections show that the income programmed by the Government presents a high degree of uncertainty. With the information available today, a risk of lower collection (compared to the Financing Law scenario) of at least $33.3 billion is estimated,” they stated.

Although in the corridors of the Casa de Nariño it is said that President Gustavo Petro has in his possession the budget decree for next year and that the cut of the $12 billion is already in sight, the Minhacienda will try this week, finally time, reach an agreement with Congress to advance the financing law.