The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency could mean an even more tense atmosphere in relations with China, especially in the face of promises of higher tariffs, according to an analysis by experts at the Brookings Institution in Washington on Friday.
Trump inherits a U.S.-China relationship restored by Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping over the past year following the challenges of COVID-19 and tension over Taiwan.
Throughout his presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly promised to impose tariffs of between 60% and 200% on Chinese goods. During an interview with Fox News On February 4, Trump said he would impose tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese imports, but stressed that he was not going to start a trade war.
The relationship with China will also feature the nominee as Secretary of the State Department, Marco Rubio. The Florida lawmaker is known for his ideological opposition to communism and his hardline stance on China. However, his position must be confirmed by the Senate.
Jim Himes, Democratic congressman from Connecticut, assured at the Brookings event that this election of a “traditional conservative” like Rubio offers him a “note of optimism in the foreign policy of the next Trump administration.”
Following the US elections, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission called for the first time to end normal and permanent trade relations with Beijing.
The change would mean the US would reintroduce annual reviews of China’s trade practices and gain more leverage to address “unfair trade behaviour”, the commission said in a report.
At the end of November, China’s Vice Minister of Commerce, Wang Shouwen, assured that they are willing to maintain an active dialogue with the United States based on the principles of mutual respect and promote the development of bilateral economic and trade relations.
Wang said China would be able to “resolve and withstand” the impact of external shocks, responding to a question about the impact of possible tariffs.
Despite the challenges dominated by commercial competition, there would also be room for diplomatic cooperation and mutual fight against the trafficking of fentanyl precursor chemicals.
The United States, where fentanyl abuse has been a leading cause of death, has pressured China to implement stricter measures, including combating illicit financing.
In August, days after a meeting of a joint anti-narcotics task force, China said it would tighten controls on three chemicals essential to the manufacture of fentanyl.
On the other hand there is climate change. The United States and China are two of the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gases. However, with Trump expected to withdraw from the Paris agreement for a second time, the two countries’ cooperation on climate issues will come to an end, although subnational initiatives with the state of California and others are expected to continue.
Trump’s imminent return to the White House could also undermine efforts to persuade China to adopt more ambitious emissions reduction targets by 2035, as Beijing is angered by US “green trade barriers” on electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels.
Added to this is food insecurity. Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, said during the event on Friday that reducing food waste and loss is a major challenge both for China and for the US.
“We discussed the potential benefits of collaborating on mutually agreed rules for trade on climate issues, as issues such as carbon and greenhouse gas emissions and the potential for carbon and soil sequestration through of agriculture are emerging in trade agreements and as trade barriers,” Welsh said.
Caroline Smith, also a food safety expert at CSIS, explained that more “safe communication paths” are necessary between experts from both countries.
“If we analyze trade in the US, we see that many farmers depend on the ingredients, both for human food and animal feed. That is very important for our farmers, also for Chinese consumers, farmers and food producers. So we have to think about how we can create that kind of safe space. That’s the challenge, but also the opportunity,” Smith said.
Finally, in the area of technology, experts anticipate that the US will face challenges in countering cyber attacks and protecting critical infrastructure.
“We are much more careful and perhaps even more restrained in our cyber operations. We could change that. That’s why I think the next president has an opportunity to hit them hard in those particular areas,” said Congressman Himes.
Himes elaborated that Artificial Intelligence could be another meeting point between the US and China.
“We are all scared because we can’t audit this. We can’t control it. We don’t know where it will go. It’s uncontrollable. It’s unpredictable. You know who hates lack of control and lack of predictability more than us? The Chinese. So it seems to me that that is an area where we should really be bringing our people together,” he concluded.
The idea, he said, is to “protect national security with sensitive technology while allowing normal trade between the United States and China to proceed.”
[Con información de Reuters y The Associated Press]
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