Ten million dollars. This is what the United States Department of State offers to anyone who provides information that leads to the identification or capture of Muhammad al-Julanithe jihadist – according to himself, a former jihadist -, controversial and ambitious leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This Islamist faction that was born as a branch of Al-Qaeda has been taking over the main Syrian cities in recent days in a surprise attack, until reaching the capital, Damascus.
Washington classified Julani as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” in 2013, so providing material support to his organization is considered a crime. Who is this man who has put the dormant Syrian civil war back on the map and will change the country forever?
A deregulated transliteration of Arabic allows Julani to also appear as Joulani, Jolani, Golani or Jawlani, whose real name is supposedly Ahmad Hussein al-Sharaa, born in 1982 in Daraa, from where he moved to Damascus. Some sources indicate that he began medical studies, but did not finish university.
As he recently explained in an interview with cnnjoined Al-Qaeda in Iraq as a youthful madness, and at the beginning of the civil war, in 2011, he was sent by him himself Abu Bakr al-Baghdadiat that time leader of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq, in order to establish a Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, which was called Jabhat al-Nusra. Two years later, Julani swore allegiance to Al-Qaeda and Ayman al-Zawahirithe successor of Osama Bin Ladenwhich gave him pedigree within the global jihadist movement.
In 2016, Julani publicly distanced himself from Al-Qaeda and renamed his group as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (JFS) to project itself as a local actor and get off the international terrorism lists. In 2017, with a first image wash and as a result of the merger with several Islamist groups, arose Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)translated as Organization for the Liberation of the Levant. It presented itself as an organization local autonomous and cohesive, focused on unifying the Syrian opposition, distancing itself from global extremism and leading the resistance against Bashar Al Assad.
In 2021, Julani granted interviews wearing Western clothing, such as light blue shirt and blazer, instead of his traditional Islamic attire. According to Turkish academics Murat Yeşiltaş and Muhammed Karakuşthis change sought to project a more pragmatic and political image, away from the extremism of Al-Qaeda, and position himself as a leader capable of stabilizing northwest Syria, in addition to opening diplomatic channels with international actors. Like other “moderate Islamists”, he sought to save his skin.
With ISIS almost annihilated, Al Assad’s victory thanks to Russian and Iranian support and the country dismembered, Islamist factions gathered in Idlib five years agowhere HTS consolidated its supremacy. Under your control and his authoritarian leadership, Julani has tortured and murdered dissidents, with methods that reflect his use of terror to maintain internal discipline and his conservative view of Islam. And at the same time an image of an effective leader has been created with changes that may seem positive at first glance.
Image washing
“Since the beginning of the offensive, HTS and Julani have issued numerous statements attempting to present themselves as non-threatening to civilians, minorities and foreign countries. However, many civilians remain concerned and skeptical due to the group’s history of human rights violations“he points out Broderick McDonaldan expert at King’s College London. These doubts underline that, although Julani seeks to legitimize his leadership, concrete actions will be decisive in changing international perception.
“The ‘terrorist’ label that Julani carries is his biggest barrier. Although he has indicated that he would be willing to dissolve HTS, this restructuring would be viewed with caution. skepticism by the international community,” he explains to EL ESPAÑOL Malik al-AbdehSyrian analyst and editor of Syria in Transition. The Daraí, he continues, wants to be perceived as a Syrian patriot, not as an extremist. His message is clear: reconciliation without revenge and a future of stability for Syria.
The Islamist leader long ago hired a team of Syrian university students educated abroad to whiten his image again as we saw it in cnn. “Julani is trying what Hasan Nasrallah achieved in Lebanon: combine religious authority with political and military power. I do not rule out that he wants to become president if he manages to legitimize his movement,” Abdeh continues.
Although many observers predict a short life for him, the analyst believes that Julani will consolidate and maintain his leadership in the northern regions of Syria, such as Idlib, due to the limitations imposed by various international actors and by his own supporter, Turkey, to whom he owes his success and his life.
Those who know Julani point out that he only wants power and ideology is the least important thing. They accuse him of joining Al-Qaeda out of pure careerism and practicing elitist governance, without understanding the diversity of Syrian society. But in recent days the leader and the HTS have become a “Sunni version of Hasan Nasrallah and Hezbollah,” the analyst adds.
This highlights the degree of organization and strategic influence that HTS has achieved in the region, highlighting how the group has evolved from a fragmented jihadist faction to a key player with political and military ambitions, capable of consolidating its control against local rivals. and project himself as the leader in the resistance that brought down Al Assad.
In an interview with Le Mondethe Franco-Syrian analyst Jihad Yazigi recognizes that HTS has presented itself in the last week as a local actor disconnected from international terrorism, although it emphasizes that Julani “will face serious difficulties when trying to govern cities like Aleppo, where religious and ethnic diversity poses significant challenges.”
Your allies
On November 27, HTS took advantage of the weakness of the Al Assad regime, the distraction of Russia and the weakness of Iran and Hezbollah, to lead the current surprise offensive on strategic cities such as Aleppo, Hama and Homs, which has reignited violence in the region and displaced tens of thousands of people.
Although Türkiye has said that he does not officially support HTS, it is public knowledge that Ankara is his first sponsor along with some individuals in Qatarwith links to the State. It is also known that Doha does not interact directly with organizations such as HTS, Hamas or the Taliban without the approval of the intelligence services of USAwhich implies coordination with Washington.
HTS numbers some 30,000 religiously motivated and better-paid fighters than the Turkish-backed forces, who have demonstrated greater coordination, preparation and effective tactics. Among the main groups that have joined the offensive are:
Ahrar al-Sham: Salafi Islamist group, oscillating between pragmatism and extremism, founded with support from Türkiye.
Jaysh al-Izza: Active in the northwest, he collaborates with HTS against Assad.
Ansar al-Tawhid: Salafist-jihadist, known for coordinated attacks.
Turkestan Islamic Party: Uyghur fighters with great military capacity.
Suqour al-Sham: Historical ally of HTS and Ahrar al-Sham, seeks to expand influence.
Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki: Former HTS ally and ties to Türkiye, participates on a smaller scale.
Syrian National Army (SNA): More secular, but supports offensives alongside HTS, financed by Türkiye.
What chances do you have of succeeding?
Despite being the most organized and cohesive rebel group in Syria, “HTS will face significant challenges in the future,” according to McDonald. “The religious and ethnic diversity of Syria poses considerable challenges, and any future government will need to engage meaningfully with all of Syrian society if it hopes to survive in the long term.” This dilemma could limit Julani’s aspirations to consolidate his control in the country.
BesidesJulani’s long-term success depends on international support and its internal control. Although he is the man of the moment, not expected to survive to this offensive. Internal disunity puts your leadership and your life at risk, and the rapid advancement of HTS could aggravate regional imbalances. McDonald notes that “although Julani is an important figure, HTS could probably continue operating without him.”
The organizational cohesion and strong institutions developed in recent years have reduced its dependence on a single leader, providing the group with notable resilience in the face of possible leadership changes. The great powers involved in the conflict – Turkey, Iran, Russia and the West – They have passed sentence on the Al Assad regime at a meeting in Dohawhile Israel is taking the opportunity to deliver the final blows to Iran, and contain Julani away from its borders.
The surprise and tactical use of homemade drones, and the rapid takeover of the main Syrian cities show that Julani can take over the country, according to sources Americans. The analyst Haid Haid noted in recent days that Syrian civilians remain trapped between only two options: bad and worse. Julani could be a fleeting period between a once beautiful and diverse country, torn apart by fourteen years of warwhich neither jihadism nor Al Assad represent.
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