10 new reactors a year. 100 in total by 2035. China’s government has created a plan to become the world’s largest nuclear energy operator, and it’s not much of a mystery.
China’s rapid nuclear expansion. Beijing has approved the construction of 11 nuclear reactors so far in 2024. It is a new record of approvals, but also a framework of reference for the next decade. 10 new approvals each year until 2035 (100 in the next 10 years) is a “realistic” goal to commit to, Tian Jiashu said.deputy general secretary of China National Nuclear Corporation.
This pace of expansion could quadruple China’s nuclear capacity to 200 gigawatts, enough to satisfy 10% of national electricity demand, but only a taste of the 400 gigawatts that would arrive by 2060.
Put France and the United States in the rearview mirror. By rapidly increasing its nuclear generation capacity, China would overtake France and the United States as the second and first power in the sector, becoming in a few years the country with the most operational reactors.
While China is positioned as the world’s leading producer and installer of renewable energy, six years ahead of its own emissions commitments, nuclear energy is a key piece in its decarbonization plans. Nuclear is a stable source of CO2-free energy. Unlike wind and solar, it can operate without interruptions.
Export wind, solar… and nuclear technology. The Chinese government’s strategy is similar to the one it followed to dominate the wind and solar industry. China is already one of the few suppliers of nuclear technology, but with its acceleration plan it aims to be the main low-cost exporter to developing countries, further increasing its energy and geopolitical influence.
And as in the case of photovoltaics, low cost does not mean worse. China is the only country that has a core meltdown-proof SMR reactor in operation. With nuclear fuel encapsulated in graphite balls and gas cooling, the Chinese HTR-PM is the second fourth-generation reactor (after the Russian BN-800) to be connected to the electrical grid, and has proven to be safe at full capacity.
The challenges of a sector dominated by the State. China has the ability to put all its state-owned companies behind the same objective. China National Nuclear Power Co., State Power Investment Corp. and China General Nuclear Power Corp. lead the country’s nuclear development.
But maintaining the pace of expansion in 2024 will also require attracting private capital to a sector traditionally dominated by the State. Tian Jiashu mentioned that the share of non-state investment could increase from the current 20% to 50%.
Other more global challenges would then come into play, such as high safety standards to avoid accidents and the logistical dilemma: there are not many suitable coastal places, but in the interior of the country, managing water use can be a headache.
Image | Petr Pavlicek/IAEA (CC)
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