New session for the election of the head of state on January 9. «The moment of truth has arrived for the Lebanese, especially for the Shiite community. After the ceasefire will be the decisive test for the future. Hezbollah’s likely return to a “political role.”
Beirut () – “Was the war really necessary?” This is the question that the Lebanese are asking themselves, stunned by the last day of senseless and incessant Israeli bombing that left at least 30 dead and, at the same time, happy for a ceasefire in which they had lost all hope. As soon as the ceasefire went into effect, tens of thousands of displaced people – many of them displaying the “V” for victory – began returning to the cities and towns from which they had been expelled since September 23 after the sudden Israeli evacuation order. In southern Lebanon, however, the return has raised a number of problems.
In their impatience, many families took to the highways or headed to towns where the Israeli army was still on the warpath. Yesterday, one reporter was shot in the leg and another was wounded by gunfire from Israeli tanks he had gotten too close to. Finally, the army (IDF) imposed a night traffic ban on all roads within its firing zone, while Lebanese armored troops were sent to Marjeyoun to prevent any contact between the population and Israeli soldiers.
From a political point of view, the ceasefire was received with mixed reactions. For some Lebanese, who secretly hoped that Israel would “finish the job,” the pro-Iran Hezbollah party is “still too strong.” In the opposite camp, it is argued that Beirut “has made too many concessions on its sovereignty” and that the agreement benefits Israel. But beyond these first reactions, political circles are trying to understand “if the Shiite community has finally woken up from its hegemonic dream”, after the shock of the war that devastated the Country of the Cedars and left almost 4,000 dead and 16,000 injured.
Yes, say people close to the political-military party, who recognize that the Lebanese Shiite movement ‘has emerged considerably weakened from this war.’ “Insiders” add that “if the first day of the ceasefire was a true test for Hezbollah’s popularity, the war against Israel and its catastrophic results have put an end to its regional role, although uncertainty persists about its weapons and financing.” ”.
A local analyst, consulted by on condition of anonymity, highlights the role of the president of the House of Representatives, Nabih Berry, a Shiite, considered “the main architect of the ceasefire”, as well as the figure capable of directing “the next phase ». In a televised speech, he declared that “this is the moment of truth for all the communities that make up Lebanon, but in particular for the Shiite community.”
With concern for the unity of the Lebanese at the top of his agenda, Berry announced, as he had promised, the election as soon as possible of a president of the Republic “who will not be a challenge to anyone”, identifying a personality capable of guarantee national cohesion. In this sense, the news that the Board of the Chamber has set January 9 of next year as the date for the session in which the head of State who will succeed Michel Aoun after more than two years of vacancy will be elected is few hours after occurring.
Meanwhile, on the screen of the Nbn television channel, which he controls, the Speaker of the House asked for the slogan “Lebanon, definitive homeland” to appear, words that refer to the Taif Agreement (1989), which ended the civil war that began in 1975. It is no coincidence that this expression echoes the last public statement of Sheikh Naïm Kassem, new secretary general of Hezbollah, in which he gave the green light, at least on the verbal level, to what many Lebanese are waiting for: the return of the Party of God to the Taif Agreement and the institutional landscape. The dignitary also hinted that Hezbollah will henceforth limit itself to “its political role.”
Berry’s speech, warmly welcomed by opposition circles, coincided with the arrival in Lebanon of the French presidential envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, whom President Emmanuel Macron has precisely assigned to facilitate the election of a president of the Republic. . The diplomat will meet today morning with Prime Minister Nagib Mikati and Nabih Berry himself, after which he will be received at the Pines Residence by the ambassadors who are part of the Paris-Egypt-Saudi Arabia-Egypt-Qatar quintet , in charge of establishing contacts and facilitating the presidential election.
The main candidate for the presidency remains the commander of the army, General Joseph Aoun,” underlines Scarlett Haddad of L’Orient-Le Jour (LOJ), “but nothing is certain yet and he may be needed more as head and leader of the army than as head of state.” Parallel to the arrival of the former French Minister of Foreign Affairs, the American architect of the ceasefire, Amos Hochstein, announced last night the entry into Lebanon of an American team associated with the committee to monitor the truce agreement. “We must support the Lebanese army, the Lebanese economy and the Lebanese people, or we will return to conflict,” he warned during an online briefing with the Lebanese-American community in Washington.
Commenting on the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel, Hochstein stressed: “This is not a 60-day truce, but a permanent ceasefire.” In his opinion, the period of about two months gives the Lebanese army time to gradually deploy effectively. The Lebanese government has given the green light to the deployment of the army in southern Lebanon,” concluded the main architect of the ceasefire, “and to the simultaneous dismantling of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.”
Finally, analysts and experts point out that, under the agreement, the United States and France will join the tripartite mechanism created after the 2006 war, which brings together the United Nations Interim Force (Unifil), Israel and Lebanon. This mechanism, now chaired by the United States, aims to maintain “direct” communication between the different parties and ensure that “whenever a violation, particularly a serious violation, is identified,” “it is addressed immediately” to avoid escalation. .
Add Comment