In 2024, the population of Latin America and the Caribbean will reach 663 million people, 3.8% less than what had been predicted in 2000, when it was projected to be 689 million people.
At that time, it was estimated that fertility and mortality rates in Latin America and the Caribbean would be higher than what was actually recorded between 2000 and 2023, considering the trends observed in the previous decade and what happened in other regions of the world.
Initial projections also did not predict the greater volume of migratory movements in recent years or the important demographic changes evident during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Currently, the region’s population is projected to peak at approximately 730 million in 2053, notes the Demographic Observatory 2024: Population perspectives and accelerated demographic changes in the first quarter of the 21st century in Latin America and the Caribbeanreleased this Thursday by the Commission Economic for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
The document, prepared by the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center (CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC, highlights that the region’s population growth rate is decreasing.
In the 1960s, growth rates exceeded 2.5% annually. However, from the middle of that decade a decreasing trend began due, above all, to the decrease in fertility. Although in the 2000 review it was expected that this downward trend would continue, the 2024 data show that, in reality, the decline was faster than had been predicted.
Less young and more old
The accelerated demographic transition has caused major changes in the age structure of the region’s population. In 1950, about 41% of the population was under 15 years old; Today, that proportion has dropped to 22.5%.
At the same time, the adult population between 15 and 64 years old went from constituting 55.6% of the total population in 1950 to representing 67.6% in 2024. It is expected that, in 2050, around 18.9% % of the regional population will be made up of people over 65 years of age, approximately double the proportion observed in 2024 (9.9%). This means an increase from 65.4 million people over 65 years of age in 2024 to an estimated 138.0 million in 2050.
He Demographic Observatory 2024 highlights that the rapid demographic change that has been observed in Latin America and the Caribbean gives rise to challenges and opportunities for the region in the context of accelerated population aging, with a significant increase in the median age of the population.
In 1950, the report indicates, the median age of the population of Latin America and the Caribbean was 18 years; In 2024, that value has risen to 31 years and, by 2050, the median age is expected to be approximately 40 years.
Healthy aging
“From ECLAC we call to promote healthy aging of the population and offer everyone, especially lower-income groups, access to health and social protection systems that reduce the impact of the increased demand for care on families,” said José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, executive secretary of ECLAC.
The change in the age structure of the population and the persistent fall in fertility towards levels below replacement levels pose challenges that are added to those already existing in Latin America and the Caribbean in terms of socioeconomic inequality and access to goods and services. State services.
Aging affects all areas of public policy and, above all, leads to an increase in demand for long-term care serviceswhich poses challenges but also opportunities.
It is crucial to especially consider the situation of women, who in general are the ones who absorb the burden of family care for children and the elderly, said the executive secretary of ECLAC.
More workers in urban areas
On the other hand, estimates for the period 1980-2023 reflect an increase in the total number of people in the labor force in Latin America, especially in urban areas. Projections for the period 2024-2050 also indicate that this increase will continue in the coming years, although at a slower rate of growth.
According to the Demographic Observatoryin 2024 there are about 332 million people in the Latin American workforce, and about 274 million are in urban areas.
The urban workforce will continue to increase by 2050, when it will reach 337 million peopleout of a total of 395 million. Along the same lines, the growth of the rural workforce is expected to stagnate, which has already been observed in the last decade.
According to ECLAC, demographic evolution is a fundamental structural transformation that demands rethinking in various policy fields to move towards more productive, inclusive and sustainable societies in Latin America and the Caribbean.
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