The Cynefin method, developed by Dave Snowden in 1999, is presented as a conceptual framework designed to address problems in complex and dynamic environments. This approach offers adaptive tools that enable leaders and strategists to understand the nature of problems and select specific strategies to manage them effectively. It classifies challenges into five main domains: Clear, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic and Messy, each with particular characteristics and strategies that facilitate decision making.
This article discusses the theoretical foundations of the Cynefin framework, its main domains, and its practical application in areas such as strategic management, knowledge analysis, and problem solving. Likewise, a practical case is examined: the geopolitical conflict in the South China Sea, an environment that exemplifies the versatility of the method in real situations. Finally, a prospective analysis is presented that evaluates possible evolutions of the conflict in the short and medium term, highlighting the value of the Cynefin framework as an essential tool for decision making in a world characterized by uncertainty and global interconnection (Snowden, 2002; Snowden & Boone, 2007).
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Cynefin Framework Basics
| Domain | Characteristics | Strategies |
| Clear | Obvious cause-effect relationships. Solutions based on best practices. | Identify, categorize and apply standard processes. Example: inventory management. |
| Complicated | Clear but not obvious relationships. Requires expert analysis. | Diagnose with experts and choose between several solutions. Example: design of marketing strategies based on detailed analyzes (Snowden, 2002). |
| Complex | Uncertain relationships, identifiable retrospectively. Solutions emerge through experimentation. | Test, observe and adjust iteratively. Example: launching products in disruptive markets (Boone, 2007). |
| Chaotic | Without clear relationships. Crisis situations that require immediate action. | Contain chaos, stabilize and analyze. Example: response to natural disasters. |
| Messy | Initial ambiguity. It does not belong to the other domains until it is categorized. | Break problems into manageable parts and assign them to other domains. |
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Case Study: South China Sea (for educational purposes only)
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Strategic and Geopolitical Context: South China Sea
The South China Sea is a key strategic region due to its role as a global trade route, its wealth in natural resources (oil, gas and fisheries) and territorial disputes between China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. The area connects the Pacific markets with those of the Indian Ocean, representing 30% of world maritime trade (Kaplan, 2014).
Strategic Dimensions of the Conflict
- Militarization and Arms Competition: The militarization of the region has intensified arms competition between China and its neighbors, with the support of external powers such as the United States.
- Diplomacy and International Law: The Permanent Court of Arbitration’s 2016 ruling in favor of the Philippines, which declared China’s historic claims invalid, has been ignored by Beijing, raising challenges to international law.
- Economic and Environmental Impact: The overexploitation of natural resources and trade tensions can have detrimental effects on both local economies and the ecological balance of the region.
Prospective Analysis
In it short terman intensification of military and diplomatic activities in the region is expected, with the United States strengthening alliances and China consolidating its presence. TO medium termthe conflict could evolve towards a more pronounced regionalization, where Southeast Asian countries increase their defense capabilities with external support, while China could opt for economic influence strategies to reduce military tensions.
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Relevance of the Case Study (for educational purposes only) in the Cynefin Framework
Applying the Cynefin framework to the South China Sea conflict allows different aspects of the problem to be classified according to their complexity, providing specific strategies to address each dimension. This approach allows the actors involved to adapt to uncertainty and manage risks, reinforcing the usefulness of the Cynefin method in environments of high geopolitical complexity.
| Domain | Characteristics | Possible Strategies |
| Clear | Obvious cause-effect relationships. Applicable standard solutions. | Apply UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea). Carry out routine patrols. |
| Complicated | Clear but not obvious cause-effect relationships. Requires expert analysis. | Multilateral consultations and expert evaluation for sanctions or trade measures. |
| Complex | Uncertain and dynamic relationships. Solutions emerge through trial and error. | Strategic simulations and joint military exercises. Investments in Southeast Asian countries to counteract Chinese influence. |
| Chaotic | Without clear relationships. Crisis that requires immediate action to avoid escalation. | Quick response to unforeseen incursions. Call emergency meetings at the UN to stabilize. |
| Messy | Ambiguous problems without initial classification. Decomposition is required to identify its nature. | Divide problems into manageable components (economic, diplomatic, military) and assign experts according to the case. |
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Prospective Analysis: Short and Medium Term
| Time Horizon | Possible Evolution | Key Factors | References |
| Short Term (1-2 years) | China intensifies its military presence through patrols. The US responds by strengthening alliances with the Philippines and Japan. Diplomatic tensions without open conflict. | Reaction of Southeast Asian countries. Participation of ASEAN and UN. | Snowden & Boone, 2007; Nye, 2021 |
| Medium Term (3-5 years) | Southeast Asian countries strengthen military capabilities with support from the US. China redirects efforts towards economic influence to reduce tensions. | Cooperation between China and ASEAN. Mediation by neutral actors such as the EU. | Chaturvedi, 2020; Ikenberry, 2011 |
The Cynefin method offers an adaptive and structured framework to address complex problems, such as the conflict in the South China Sea. Its ability to categorize contexts and guide strategic actions makes it a valuable tool for leaders and managers. The evolution of the conflict will depend on the ability of the actors to balance economic, diplomatic and military interests.
Master in Political Science from the Faculty of Law and Professor in History from the Faculty of Humanities of the National University of Mar del Plata.
Since 1980 he has specialized in United States Defense Policy. Researcher in the team led by General José T. Goyret where his first specialized article was published: “The military component of the Warsaw Pact” in Armas y Geoestrategia, no. 6, May 1983.
Teacher at UNMDP between 1984 and 1986.
Lecturer and guest professor at the National Intelligence School between 1993 and 1999.
Professor at the Intelligence Institute of the Armed Forces between 2008 and 2013.
Between 1993 and 2023 he has published specialized articles in the Magazine of the National Intelligence School (Repository in the Library of Congress of the Nation);
Information Manual; National Defense Magazine (No. 7, 2022); and Casus Belli Magazine of the History of War and Strategy, the UNDEF Army Faculty (nos. 3 and 4 2022 and 2023).
Author of the book War on Five Continents: The United States and the Logic of Global Conflicts (2012).
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