Less fire and more artifice

What governor, mayor, non-profit institution or business chamber will now dare to invite Victoria Villarruel to an event, even if only for protocol reasons, much less if the president is present? You will probably no longer be able to join military parades or ride tanks. Is the vice president’s only expectation from now on that she be watched carefully in case an institutional crisis occurs, or if a tie must be broken in the Senate? Because from now on any autonomous political gesture or high-sounding statement – ​​such as “poor little ham” – will go to the archive of anecdotes, knowing that Milei has decided to sound the lesson.

On more than one occasion we analyzed this relationship and described it as “no turning back”, given that the libertarian leadership system is absolutely top-down and ruthless. Therefore, the vice president does not have much more space than the limit granted to her by the constitution, and she could present candidates in several provinces next year, perhaps complicating life for LLA. Perhaps it should have been worth mentioning that she arrived thanks to Milei, not because she provided great added value by herself, and that her positive image went hand in hand with an ruling party that is celebrating its first year with some palpable successes. In politics it is always about measuring the exact moment in which an action fits, so as not to clash with the course of history. Perón spoke of “the hasty ones” and “the retarded ones.” Villarruel perhaps imagined another course of events at this point.

The opposition is not disoriented in the face of the Milei phenomenon because it is stupid, but because it still does not know how to find the exact point of how to stand up to the libertarian leader. As we said last week, in the bid Cristina has it easier than Macri, for example, but both projected another photo at this point in the mandate which would have given them opportunities that did not occur. Did the current vice president believe that she had the correct differentiation formula that other old sea dogs have not found so far? Even the CGT decided not to get on the idea of ​​a general strike, asking to establish a dialogue.

In a framework where all politicians, journalists, businessmen, union members and consultants see that there is a government for which everything is going well, it was to be expected that the president – ​​larger than a crescent in a café con leche – would begin to to please everyone with his usual uncontemplative style. If you do not have strategic patience playing against the “best government in Argentine history”…

This president – ​​who claims to have already taken several bodies from the Menem government – ​​once again confirms that he continues to face a learning curve, in this case at the international level. Beyond the anecdotal, Macrón, the French uncle (like the one in the old Thermidor advertisement) clarified some things for him. Thus, Milei realized that the G20 is a select club where certain rules must be respected to continue belonging, very different from the “popular” UN assembly. Well, he abandoned the attempt to convert said elite into a G19 + 1, and persist in his role as enfant terrible (to be one you have to have international power, unless you want to brag about being Kim Jong-un). Thus he was able to crown a splendid international week, starting with a speech in English at Mar-a-Lago (Santiago Cafiero can give him some class), continuing with Macron, the club in Rio, and the admired by locals and strangers Meloni. The final touch was with Xi Jinping, who just wants to do business and not be bothered.

While Milei is having a blast and Macri has noises with cousin Jorge about how to manage the relationship with the national government, Cristina inaugurated her role as president of the vilified PJ – she even sang the march – to tell the troops that she is intransigent with the libertarian management and the business – media – judicial caste. As often happens in politics, certain “hawkish gestures” are the indicator of the beginning of a negotiation. Because to distribute, there are a role: the positions of the AGN, almost 150 judges, the national attorney and 2 positions in the Supreme Court. Cris’s PJ has the key in the Senate to define all this with the government. Will the lion dare to appoint the two aspiring courtiers to the commission, as Macri did, at the risk that Rosatti will not want to swear them in?

Why couldn’t the project be treated with a “clean record”? Because the government is using it as a flag against public opinion, but deep down it does not want to make it difficult for Cristina if she wanted to be a candidate next year, although an important part of the library says that it cannot apply to her? For the same reason, do you take away the pensions of the former president, knowing that this will be prosecuted and she will recover them? Why is he launching now, on the edge of the end of the regular session, the electoral reform to lower the PASO, with which not even Macriism agrees? It seems that there are many fireworks thinking about controlling the public agenda and giving symbolic satisfaction to a social majority fed up with the privileges of politics.

Another big question is the intransigence regarding the budget process, which drags on forever. The dialogue-oriented governors want to commit the government to a full-fledged law that restricts it to its promises. But it gives every impression that it is not what the president wants, except for his own project. If there were no law – for the second consecutive year – Javo and Toto would have a free hand to do whatever they wanted with the extra revenue resulting from inflation (ever decreasing). So they would allocate funds as they please, in the best style of Néstor and Cristina (ideal formula in an election year).

The week was crossed by the expression of the “armed arm”, later relativized. As with many of the topics we discuss in this column, they are less fire and more artifice.