The challenges of Donald Trump’s government in Central America

There are three major challenges that will mark the relations between the new United States government with El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, according to analysts: immigration, drug trafficking and insecurity, and the region’s relations with China.

Of the three countries in the Northern Triangle of Central America, El Salvador and Honduras are the ones that maintain diplomatic and commercial relations with China. Guatemala, for its part, does not recognize the “One China” motto and maintains its ties with Taiwan.

Regarding migration, analysts agree that “zero tolerance” agreements are expected, since, during the first Trump administration, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras signed pacts that forced migrants to request asylum from them before doing so. on the southern US border.

Regarding drug trafficking, Guatemala and Honduras will mainly be the big challenges, because both are considered important drug trafficking routes and because two months ago Honduras canceled the extradition treaty with the United States. This impacts high-impact cases linked to drug activity.

El Salvador

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele appears to be the Central American leader more interested on strengthening ties with Trump: Bukele was one of the first leaders to congratulate him for his “resounding victory,” and for “the importance of his election for the world,” he told her in a phone call.

According to experts, migration, the extradition of founding gang members of the Mara Salvatrucha and relations with China will be the main points of Trump’s agenda with this country.

“The US attitude towards migrants and migration will create real situations of personal crisis for many Central Americans and may also create situations in which the governments of the region will receive domestic pressure to condemn the mistreatment and expulsion of their nationals,” he told the Voice of America the historian Héctor Lindo Fuentes, professor emeritus at Fordham University in New York.

Bukele once signed a “Safe Third Country” agreement with Trump, avoiding diplomatic confrontations despite Trump’s zero-tolerance speech against illegal migration.

For international relations expert Napoleón Campos, the issue of the Mara Salvatrucha could come to the table: in 2019, Trump created the Vulcano Joint Task Force whose purpose was to dismantle the structure of the MS13.

According to Campos VOATrump could now be very interested in having the 27 founding leaders of the gang, several of them in the power of the Salvadoran government, be extradited. El Salvador has opposed this since 2021.

Regarding relations with China, El Salvador is one of the countries that has obtained the most juicy agreements from this relationship: the construction of a stadium, a library and other minor infrastructure projects.

For Lindo Fuentes, “Central American countries have been listening to the siren song of Chinese diplomacy,” which at some point may create friction.

Guatemala

This country also accepted a “Safe Third Country” agreement with Trump in 2019, which was later questioned by human rights organizations that pointed out that it did not meet the conditions to grant asylum to migrants, like its neighbors.

This time, the course is uncertain, according to Lindo Fuentes, since the announced Trump measures against illegal migration generate uncertainty not only on the issue of deportations but also on the impact that these measures could have on the flow of remittances.

If agreements are not reached, “(The impact on remittances) could be significant and would create economic problems in our countries,” added Lindo Fuentes to the VOA.

According to the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), in 2023 Guatemalans received 19 billion dollars in remittances, mainly from the United States, a record figure.

“We should not expect a policy favorable to the more than 10 million irregular immigrants,” said Jaime Rivas Castillo, a specialist in human mobility issues at the Don Bosco University in El Salvador.

For the analyst, it remains to be seen if Trump manages to activate the deportation machine with enough force to expel the largest number of people.

Another key issue with this country is drug trafficking: unlike El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala have been countries identified as routes of interest for drug trafficking in America.

During the first Trump administration, the United States signed agreements to provide economic support to this country to fight this crime. This time, during his campaign, Trump promised sanctions for countries that do not combat drug trafficking.

Furthermore, another relevant aspect, according to analysts, is that with Trump the diplomatic pressures that stopped authoritarian excesses and human rights abuses will disappear.

“This will be a particularly serious problem for Guatemala, where President Arévalo will lose important support. Even Costa Rica could see a weakening of its democratic spirit,” added Lindo Fuentes, for his part.

Honduras

Honduras has already established a position on the guidelines of the new US administration with respect to Central America: “we have to adapt to them and be prepared to make decisions,” said Honduran Foreign Minister Enrique Reina to the VOA.

Without a doubt, Honduras’ unexpected decision to put end to the extradition agreement with the United States In September of this year it will be a point to be returned to on the Trump agenda, the analysts interviewed agree, since this has been considered a “setback” in the fight against drug trafficking.

“The policy against drug trafficking has already created problems for some countries due to judicial cases against people with a high political profile, as in the case of Honduras, and it is expected that the trend will continue,” said Lindo Fuentes.

The end of the treaty was a surprise action by the Honduran government in response to questions from Washington’s ambassador in Tegucigalpa, Laura Dogu, about the visit of two senior Honduran officials to Venezuela for a meeting with the Venezuelan defense minister, Vladimir Padrino. accused of drug trafficking in the United States.

Honduras is one of the most important drug trafficking operations centers between South America and Mexico, because “all branches of the government and its armed forces are plagued by corruption,” according to InSight Crime, a portal that monitors crime in Latin America. .

And, also like its neighbors, migration will be key. Important caravans of migrants have left Honduras in recent years for the United States.

“I believe that it is feasible that they expel some 4, 5, 6 million immigrants in the next two years, and with this show the electorate, even the Latino electorate, that they are capable and will honor what was promised,” Campos anticipated. , for his part.

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