Who could Trump deport in his second term?

( Spanish) – The president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, promised not only to accelerate the deportation of undocumented immigrants, but in fact to undertake the largest deportation program in the history of the country, as one of the cornerstones of his campaign.

“We can feel the sense of uncertainty of many people. Many people wonder: ‘What happens now? What do we do?’” Cesar Espinosa, a Hispanic community leader in Houston, told , who says he has received numerous calls from concerned people since Trump’s victory.

As the weeks go by in the transition towards January 20, although uncertainty persists, some details of the incoming Government’s plans are becoming known.

One of the first goals is likely to be expelling undocumented immigrants who have committed crimes, according to early discussions among Trump’s team, a source familiar with the president-elect’s preliminary plans told .

As of early 2022, about 11 million unauthorized immigrants were living in the US, according to federal government estimates. Among this group, Mexico is the main country of origin (with about 4 million, a decrease from the peak of 6.9 million in 2007), followed by El Salvador (750,000), India (725,000), Guatemala (675,000) and Honduras (525,000), according to figures from the Pew Research Center based on 2022 data.

Although there is no data on how many undocumented immigrants have a history of crimes, a study in Texas promoted by the National Institute of Justice (Department of Justice agency), published in September, indicates that undocumented immigrants are arrested for violent or drug crimes at a rate less than half that of US citizens.

John Sandweg, acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during part of the Obama administration, told that the vast majority of undocumented immigrants have never committed a crime within the country and that a large portion of them (estimated 4.6 million) are part of mixed-status families, with spouses or children who are American citizens.

“When you turn it into a numerical game and say: ‘We are going to reach a million in a year,’ you are not just talking about criminals (…) There are not a million criminals to catch. “They are talking about families, and that is the real concern,” Sandweg said.

During his first term (2017-2021), Trump deported more than 1.5 million peopleaccording to Kathleen Bush-Joseph, policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute. The figure is just over half of the 2.9 million deportations carried out during Barack Obama’s first term (2009-2013) and less than the 1.9 million deportations during Obama’s second term (2013-2017). .

Tom Homan, former acting director of ICE during the first Trump administration, will be the new “border czar,” according to the president-elect. Homan told Fox News that Trump’s second term will be like his first, but with more deportations. In the case of mixed-status families, he said in a recent interview on CBS, “families could be deported together.”

“They will be selective arrests. “We’ll know who we’re going to arrest, where we’re most likely to find them based on numerous, you know, investigative processes,” Homan added.

A key issue in any immigration plan is the future of the “dreamers,” as immigrants who were brought to the United States as children are known.

Targeting the “dreamers” would be a departure from the historically bipartisan support they have enjoyed. Some are temporarily protected by the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which allows recipients to live and work in the United States, and which Trump tried unsuccessfully to end during his first mandate.

Trump’s team is still considering whether, how and when to deport them.

Trump confirmed in a post on the Truth Social network that he is willing to declare a national emergency as part of his plan to deport immigrants on a large scale. This would facilitate the process of unlocking Department of Defense resources and pave the way for expanding detention spaces.

But the team is also preparing decrees. “In the first days you will see those decrees come out to stop the flow (of immigrants) and affect that flow that arrives during that time. The immediate focus is on those who are already here (…) Those are the first two things that are prioritized in the first days,” according to a source familiar with the plans.

Trump’s priority from the beginning is to reinstate the border policies of his first administration and reverse those of current President Joe Biden, Jason Miller, Trump’s senior adviser, told .

Immigrant rights advocates fear that deportation plans will soon go deeper and affect people who, according to them, have a right to live in the United States.

“Make no mistake: mass deportations will harm the millions targeted by Donald Trump (…). They will tear parents from their children, destroy businesses and livelihoods, and devastate the fabric of our nation and our economy,” said Juan Proaño, CEO of the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC).

For her part, Karoline Leavitt, spokesperson for the president-elect’s transition team, told in a statement: “The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin, giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made during the campaign. He will fulfill it.”

U.S. Customs and Border Protection and ICE officials are not commenting on possible new policies or preparations. Both would be essential in any deportation plan, but the leadership will not change until the second Trump administration begins on January 20.