Negotiations for a 60-day suspension of fighting, followed by the implementation of resolution 1701, continue along difficult paths. Among the obstacles is the military stubbornness of the Jewish State against the Land of the Cedars. Another of Hezbollah’s historical leaders, Mohammed Afif, was the victim of a targeted attack. According to World Bank estimates, more than 100,000 homes have been destroyed in the last two months.
Beirut () – Deviating from a rule it has observed since the assault against Hezbollah’s head of liaison and coordination, Wafic Safa, on October 9, and which prohibits bombing targets located in the administrative heart of Beirut, Israel struck again yesterday the heart of the Lebanese capital. In a selective attack, the Jewish State’s missiles killed two Hezbollah cadres: Mohammed Afif, head of the pro-Iranian Shiite movement’s media, an early comrade of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary general assassinated on September 27 ; Mohammed Madi, head of operations in southern Lebanon, was also hit.
In the last few hours, Israel confirmed that it had killed Hezbollah’s “propaganda chief”, a seemingly affable man who had made several public appearances in recent times, aware that he was at risk of being eliminated. On the same day, the Jewish State army opened fire on a Lebanese army post in Meri, a Druze village in the Hasbaya region, killing two soldiers.
An attack launched despite the fact that, according to previously agreed rules, the army is considered militarily neutral, as is the Interim Peacekeeping Force in South Lebanon (Unifil). According to observers, these serious events are part of a new phase of the war that began on September 23 between Israel and Hezbollah, which should precede a ceasefire agreement, the terms of which are currently being discussed.
This escalation has been characterized by a relentless attack on buildings in Haret Hreik, Bourj Brajneh and Chyah, in the southern suburbs of Beirut. The Lebanese have witnessed, sometimes live, sometimes on television, the daily destruction of their real estate. The raids have not even spared places of worship: the windows of a church on the outskirts of Hadeth were also shattered by the bombings.
According to unofficial World Bank estimates, more than 100,000 homes have been destroyed in the last two months, including entire southern towns such as Kfar Kila and Adeissé, close to the border. The international institution has estimated the initial cost of the losses suffered and, therefore, the amount of eventual reconstruction works at $8.5 billion.
However, unlike the targeted operations mentioned above, bombing raids in the southern suburbs are announced an hour in advance to allow civilians to take cover. This has generally prevented the loss of human life. Deserted by their occupants since the first bombing, the houses are only inspected during the day. In this sense, surveillance has been established on the streets to prevent looting of rubble and robberies in abandoned apartments.
The Southern Front
On the southern front, the Israeli army finally managed to force its way to the Lebanese coast, bypassing the headquarters of the Unifil forces in Naqoura, which it wanted to relocate. The artillery batteries were thus able to cross the border to support the soldiers’ operations inside Lebanese territory, which were also marked by the unexpected resistance of Hezbollah units.
In addition to the ground resistance, the Shiite movement fires an average of 100 medium-range missiles and drones, usually against the Haifa, Acca and Ashdod regions. However, the militants rarely use their long-range missiles. According to specialists, these are controlled by Iranian personnel and are subject to strict rules of use. The Israeli media stated that “there were no indications that the objective had been reached”, in a strategy of systematic concealment of the losses suffered by the Jewish State.
However, it should be noted that, even in this case, the war between Hezbollah and Israel has some limitations in terms of objectives: Lebanon’s infrastructure, in particular the Beirut international airport, has not been targeted by bombing; On the other hand, strategic targets such as the Dimona reactor, the Israeli David Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv and the oil fields in the Mediterranean have remained untouched by bombing.
Tense negotiations
The Israeli military escalation comes at the same time as very tense negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, through the United States and outgoing President Joe Biden’s deputy, Amos Hochstein, to achieve a ceasefire. Hochstein is expected tomorrow in Lebanon and will then travel to Israel. In reality, this ceasefire would initially be a 60-day freeze in fighting that would precede the withdrawal of Hezbollah north of the Litani River line and the deployment of the Lebanese Army to the evacuated areas at the same time as Unifil.
“The negotiations are taking place under fire,” says Kassem Kassir, an analyst close to Hezbollah. In his opinion, the intensification of fighting is due to Lebanon rejecting the conditions that Israel and the United States have tried to impose. Among the conditions that the country of cedar has refused to accept, explains Kassir, are “the formation of an international committee to supervise the application of UN resolution 1701 and the authorization of the Israeli army to carry out incursions into the interior of Lebanon”. The next few days will be decisive for the outcome of the negotiations. The visit to Beirut of Ari Larijani, main advisor to the Supreme Guide of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, Ali Khamenei, suggests that it will not be easy to reach an agreement.
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