Who is the favorite candidate to win the second round in the Uruguayan presidential elections? This is what the polls say

( Spanish) – Uruguay warms up its engines towards a runoff with an uncertain finale this Sunday, November 24, between the center-left Yamandú Orsi and the center-right Alvaro Delgado, with a slight favoritism in the polls for Orsi, of the Frente Amplio.

According to three surveys carried out in the first two weeks of November, in all cases Orsi would win the second round of elections over Delgado, of the National Party, with a difference of between 2% and 4% of the votes. In all cases, this difference is within the margin of error, which is why the same polling companies have warned that the “scenario is highly competitive” and the outcome is uncertain.

According to Opción, Orsi and his running mate, Carolina Cosse, have 48.5% of the voting intention, while Álvaro Delgado and Valeria Ripoll have 45.1%. The consultant clarifies that the difference between both formulas “is included within the margin of error.” Unlike other pollsters, Opción estimates the votes of undecided voters through a battery of additional questions, so this category is not discriminated against. The survey was carried out between November 4 and 9 with cell phone consultations with 1,150 people.

According to Equipos, the difference between Orsi and Delgado is a little greater: 45% would vote for Orsi, 41% for Delgado; Meanwhile, 6% would vote blank and 8% remain undecided. Like Option, the Teams measurement considers that, although Orsi has the lead, the difference is within the margin of error, which is 3%. “Small variations in each of the segments analyzed could have important consequences, since some movements here are worth double,” explains the pollster. Therefore, “a four-point difference like the current one may be much smaller than it appears at first glance.” The sample taken by Teams is 1,000 cases, between November 2 and 11.

Just 10 days before the second electoral round, Fáctum released the last survey in this series, and it also gives preponderance to the candidate for the Presidency of the Frente Amplio, over the representative of the so-called “Republican Coalition.” In that measurement the difference is a little narrower: Orsi has 47% of the preferences against 45% for Delgado, with 5% undefined. The survey was carried out from November 4 to 11, with 900 cases, consulted by cell phone.

The director of Factum, Eduardo Bottinelli, assured that “from a technical point of view we are facing a tie” and that the scenario “is open.”

We will surely have to wait until late on Sunday night, November 24, to find out who will be the next president of Uruguay.