Analysts rule out recession in Sheinbaum’s first year

Challenges

Although most specialists rule out an economic recession, they see economic challenges for the country.

Interest rates remain high, exports have not grown as in previous years due to the sluggishness of industrial activity in the United States; In addition, next year the process of consolidating public finances will take place, said Saldaña.

In addition, he added, there is high uncertainty due to the constitutional changes in Mexico and what will happen in the United States election; and, although it will not be until 2026, the review of the T-MEC will also provide a touch of uncertainty for the Mexican economy.

The analysts agreed that the federal administration has to send messages of certainty and confidence to the market, among which is guaranteeing the rule of law and respecting the rules of the game.

“The longer the high uncertainty environment lasts, the longer the damage will be,” said Roldán.

The government has to encourage private investment in three areas: hybrid infrastructure, infrastructure, among others – to take advantage of the nearshoring trend -, clean energy, particularly wind and solar; and communications, from roads, air terminals and other mobility routes.

“If we do not take advantage of the issue of nearshoring, which can catapult the capacity for growth, it is a unique and unrepeatable opportunity,” Villa said while commenting that investors have already turned to countries like Guatemala or Panama.

USA

The United States factor will continue to be important for the Mexican economy. The economy of the northern neighbor achieved soft landing (soft landing), that is, it managed to lower inflation without slowing down the economy.

In that sense, if the United States does well it will be good for Mexico due to the close economic relationship that the trading partners have.

However, although services in Mexico are doing well on the industrial side, it is expected that there will be some manufacturing industrial sluggishness in the United States. “That makes us think that Mexico is going to be affected by this phenomenon, waiting for industrial activity in the United States to rebound,” said Saldaña. An environment of lower interest rates in the United States “can benefit Mexico,” he said.

Regarding remittances, the experts consulted say that companies will continue to be important for the national economy. However, Saldaña warned, “if employment in the United States continues to slow down, there may be a more modest trend in its growth.”