Billions of dollars in advertising are raining down on voters across the Rust Belt, Rocky Mountains and American Southwest, as the two major political parties portray opponents as extremes in a fight for control of the Senate. federal.
In just three races — Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana — more than $1 billion is projected to be spent by Nov. 5.
Ohio could break spending record for Senate races. Montana’s will go down as the most expensive Senate race in history in terms of cost per vote. And late in the game, Democrats are sending millions of dollars more to Texas, a Republican stronghold where the Democratic Party has new hopes of defeating two-term conservative Sen. Ted Cruz, an upset that could help them protect their majority.
Republicans need to win two seats to secure an outright majority, and one of those — West Virginia — is all but assured for the GOP.
Other contests are more volatile and unpredictable.
For Democrats, the tough math of this election cycle is forcing them to defend eight seats in tough states. The loss of outgoing senators could spell an extinction-level event for Democrats representing reliably red states.
The election will also test the strength of both parties on the ballot in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, key presidential battleground states known as the Blue Wall for their relatively reliable Democratic voting record. Victories there by Republicans would dramatically alter the playing field in the Senate.
Campaign strategists generally say Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is ahead of his party’s senatorial candidates in polls in key Senate states, while Democratic candidates in those states are ahead of their presidential nominee. Kamala Harris.
That means there is a segment of voters who might vote for Trump but not support Republicans in Senate races, or who might split their votes with Democratic Senate candidates.
These divisions are unusual. In 2020 in Maine, voters supported Democrat Joe Biden for president and re-elected Republican Senator Susan Collins, for example.
Republican strategists said they expect the party’s political action groups (known as PACs) to spend through Election Day in seven states where Democrats are defending Senate seats: Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Polls show competitive races, but also in Nevada and Arizona, where Republicans are encouraged by strong early voting numbers.
Republicans are more confident about flipping the seat in deep red Montana, where Republican Tim Sheehy faces three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. They are also optimistic about reliably red Ohio, where Republican Bernie Moreno is challenging three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Torunn Sinclair, a spokesman for a pair of Republican-aligned super PACs, said one — American Crossroads — will withdraw $2.8 million from Montana, while the pair is investing several million more in Pennsylvania.
There, Republican David McCormick is trying to defeat third-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in a presidential battleground subcard that both sides say it’s close.
By contrast, Democrats say they are forcing competitive contests late in the campaign in two red states, Texas and Nebraska. Defeating the outgoing Republicans in one or both of those seats could help Democrats reach at least a 50-50 tie in the Senate if Democrats lose in Montana or Ohio.
In Texas, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, a former professional football player, has proven adept at raising small donations in his challenge to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Allred has raised more than any other Senate candidate nationally except Tester and Brown.
On top of that, Democrats hope Harris’ rally in Houston last Friday with Allred and Beyoncé can help Allred by boosting turnout among Black voters.
In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn, a tattooed former union leader who supports abortion rights, appears to have solidified Democratic and independent voters while making some inroads with Republicans, Democratic strategists say.
In both states, Republicans acknowledge that they have had to unexpectedly spend money to bolster the prospects of their outgoing candidates, but they also expect to win handily.
In Ohio, Brown has tried to personalize his appeal by appearing in most of his own ads and speaking directly to the camera.
Elsewhere, strategists expect first-term Florida Sen. Rick Scott to defeat Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in deep blue Maryland to beat former Gov. Larry Hogan to fill a seat he will vacate. vacant Democratic Senator Ben Cardin.
[Con información de The Associated Press]
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