Latin America and the Caribbean lost almost 3 years of life expectancy at birth between 2019 and 2021 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic

The new population estimates and projections for Latin America and the Caribbean make it possible to estimate the demographic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and show that Latin America and the Caribbean lost 2.9 years of life expectancy at birth between 2019 and 2021, passing from 75.1 years in 2019 to 72.1 years in 2021. This makes it the region in the world that lost the most years of life expectancy due to the pandemic.

The fall between 2019 and 2021 was greater in Central America, with a loss of 3.6 years, although there was evidence of an acceleration in the loss of life expectancy in the Caribbean in 2021, as well as great inequalities between countries. However, the projections assume that in 2022 the recovery of the lost years of life expectancy will begin, due to the vaccination process and the measures taken by the countries to combat the pandemic.

Population growth is slowing

Although population growth in the region began to slow down in 1991, strong reductions were observed in 2020 and 2021 as an effect of the pandemic. In the 2015-2025 period, an annual population growth rate of 8 per thousand is estimated, while the 2020-2021 growth rate was only 5.9 per thousand.

It is estimated that in 2022 the population of the region will reach just over 660 million people. Decreasing population growth, resulting mainly from declining fertility, will lead the region to reach its maximum population in 2056, with a total of 751.9 million people.

The total fertility rate (TFR) in the region, which in 2015 fell below the replacement level, is estimated at 1.85 live births per woman in 2022 and will continue to decline, reaching 1.68 in 2100. It is also observed an increase in the average age of fertility. As highlighted in the report The sociodemographic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean, in the region there was an acceleration of the drop in the number of births as a result of the pandemic. Fertility was reduced by the economic crisis, because couples are reluctant to have children in times of adversity and uncertainty.

Regarding fertility in adolescents aged 15 to 19, population estimates and projections show that Latin America and the Caribbean has a rate 48% higher than the world average, remaining only below the estimated and projected rates for Africa. Nine countries in the region are among the 60 countries with the highest adolescent fertility rate in the world in 2015-2020. Despite the above, the region, on average, has managed to increase the rate of decline in adolescent fertility since 2010, going from 73.1 children per 1,000 women aged 15-19 in 2010 to 52.1 in 2022.

Other demographic trends in the region

Regarding international migration, Latin America and the Caribbean is characterized as a region that expels population, with a negative migratory balance from 1950 to date. Despite the difficulties of population movement during the pandemic, mainly due to the closure of borders, the region presented negative migratory balances in 2020 and 2021, but lower than those estimated for 2019.

Another long-term trend is population aging and the approaching end of the demographic dividend. In 2047, the population of people aged 60 and over is projected to exceed that of those under 15 years of age.

The population estimates and projections were prepared by the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center (CELADE) – Population Division of ECLAC in conjunction with the United Nations Population Division as part of the World Population Prospects 2022. The method of components by cohorts by simple ages and calendar years is used, unlike the previous review (2019), which was prepared for years ending in zero and five and age groups.