So far in 2024, the dollar in Colombia has risen $545.34, so the devaluation of the peso is 14.27%.
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This week, the currency has experienced a notable increase and Today the Representative Market Rate (TRM official dollar) is $4,367.39. This price marks a milestone since the US currency has not reached such high levels since October 2023.
Market analysts point out that the recent appreciation of the dollar is due to a combination of internal and external factors. Projections indicate that, at the end of 2024, the dollar will not drop below $4,300, which raises concern about the implications of this trend for the Colombian economy.
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According to Juan Camilo Gómez, director of foreign exchange at Credicorp Capital, the country’s macroeconomic situation has significantly influenced this behavior. Gómez indicates that, although the economy is not in crisis, it has deteriorated, adding pressure to the markets. In addition, discussions about a reform in Congress that could increase the national debt further complicate the picture.
Felipe Campos, investment manager of Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria, highlights the devaluation of the peso, which has been accelerated since June, in line with the regional crisis that affects countries such as Brazil and Mexico, whose currencies have devalued between 17 and 19%. The situation has contributed to Colombia also facing a significant devaluation, which is estimated at 80 percent of the current value of the dollar.
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The strength of the global dollar also plays a crucial role. Campos mentions that the expectation of not facing a recession in the United States, Along with good results in employment and inflation, it has boosted the US currency. This phenomenon adds an additional 10% to the value of the dollar in Colombia, which also faces political and economic uncertainty.
Andrés Moreno Jaramillo, an economist at the Universidad del Rosario, warns that the upward trend of the dollar since April 2024 could generate inflationary pressures in the country, affecting the cost of imported products and inputs. Jeisson Andrés Balaguera, director of Values AAA, Investment Banking, points out that oil prices and the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve are also determining factors in the behavior of the dollar in Colombia.
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