Kazakhstan, Uzbekitsan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkemnistan are also looking forward to the outcome of the confrontation between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, taking into account the disruptive effects of world events on the region’s prospects. Also hanging in the balance is the future of the “5+1” contact format through which the White House has attempted to gain footholds in the former Soviet zone in recent years.
Astana () – A few days before the election of the American president, in which Donald Trump and Kamala Harris face each other, the whole world is wondering what consequences the election of the new tenant of the White House will have, who will replace the weakened Joe Biden , in politics, economics, ecology and the solution to the ongoing wars in the world, especially in Ukraine and Israel. Central Asian countries also await the outcome of the consultation with great interest, taking into account the disruptive effects of global events on the region’s future prospects.
In his previous term, Trump already had the opportunity to interact with Central Asian leaders, while his opponent does not have this experience. The reference point remains the “5+1” contact format, which has been held since the early 2000s, when then-President George Bush began meeting the heads of state of these countries (excluding Turkmenistan, which incorporated later) to evaluate the perspectives still conditioned by the Soviet legacy, especially in Afghanistan, and the conflicts that arose after the 2001 attacks against the Twin Towers in New York. The most influential leader, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev, met with no less than five American presidents during his long period in power, and it was Barack Obama who formalized the format that has since spread to other international levels.
Nazarbaev’s successor, Kasym-Žomart Tokaev, made two official visits to the US, in which he discussed various possibilities for cooperation in the fields of investment, trade and even artificial intelligence, concluding a number of important agreements, to the point that Washington became Astana’s second economic partner after Moscow. In 2023, the five Central Asian presidents met with President Biden, addressing the sensitive issue of the effects of sanctions against Russia and attempts to circumvent them through Central Asia. After the meeting, the White House issued a statement stating that they mainly discussed energy security issues in the region, without touching on human rights issues, as many would like to see today. However, Biden called the meeting a “historic moment” and called for it to be more frequent and constructive.
Eurasia specialist Catherine Putz, editor of the American magazine The Diplomat, observes that “neither Harris nor Trump have hinted at the possibility of continuing the 5+1 summits,” and believes that the Democratic candidate does not seem willing to renew them, despite the one that took place with Biden, to whom she remains deputy, due to her greater sensitivity towards the issue of human rights, which Central Asian presidents are very reluctant to address outside their own context. Kyrgyz academic Ališer Khamidov also considers the platform ineffective, and does not believe that it will be developed further, whoever is the new occupant of the White House after November 5.
Russia has no intention of leaving these lands to American and Western influence, and high-ranking Moscow officials visit these areas almost every month, starting with President Vladimir Putin himself and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The presidents of the Central Asian countries themselves often fly to Moscow, maintain numerous personal relationships with Putin and the Russians, and remain linked to the Russian space at various levels, including the institutional levels of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Csto military alliance. The Americans are aware that they cannot compete at this level with the Russians and, according to Khamidov, “bilateral meetings with each partner in the region could be more fruitful.”
Obviously, everyone is waiting to know Harris and Trump’s positions regarding the war in Ukraine; The first has declared that it is willing to support kyiv “in whatever is necessary to counter Russian aggression”, without saying too much, while Trump has been repeating for some time that if elected “he will end the war in 24 hours”, stating the two parties in conflict to the negotiating table.
Photo: White House
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