in the game of alliances the (uncertain) future of Ishiba and the nation

Tomorrow early elections in the country to renew the House of Representatives. The current majority (and the executive) at risk after months of corruption scandals and crisis of consensus. In the Republican Party there are already shadow movements for new leadership. From the probable closure of the opposition to the proposal for a coalition government.

Tokyo () – In Japan it is the eve of voting for the early elections scheduled for tomorrow and called by the prime minister Shigeru Ishibain office since October 1, for the renewal of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet. The head of the government intends to reinforce the popular mandate and shore up support for the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), of which he is leader, after months of corruption scandals and crisis of consensus. However, the executive is in danger and never before has a majority so different from the current one come out of the polls. There are about 105 million voters and they are called to renew the Lower House in its total of 465 seats; at least 233 are needed to obtain a majority.

In the last elections, the majority formation led by the GOP had obtained a total of 276 seats, thanks in part to a coalition agreement with the Komeito party, a Buddhist formation linked to the Soka Gakkai group, made up of 32 legislators. An alliance with alternate phases and critical moments that the liberal democrats have contained thanks to their solid majority, but which in the future could be less predictable due to the fall of consensus in the country. So much so that Ishiba’s party could need another ally – the People’s Democratic Party or the Nippon Ishin no Kai, the Innovation Party – to stay in power.

Koya Miyamae, senior economist at Smbc Nikko Securities Inc. considers it “possible” that Ishiba will choose to “immediately resign to take responsibility” for the elections if he does not achieve a “coalition majority.” However, in the most likely case, the current prime minister would begin a phase of negotiations with opposition leaders to gain support immediately after the elections, in case the current ruling bloc lost its majority in the Lower House for the first time. time since 2009. In recent days, the general secretary of the LDP and number two of the party, Hiroshi Moriyama, has explained that, regardless of the result, it will be necessary to “engage in positive conversations with like-minded parties to develop the country.”

In reality, the outlook looks bleak, as most opposition camps have been reticent at the prospect of acting as a crutch for the current majority party, to the point that at the beginning of the month they presented a motion of no confidence against Ishiba and the executive. “Basically, it is impossible to form an alliance with the party to which the motion is addressed,” declared Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CPJ), in recent days, criticizing the corruption scandal in which the LPD has been involved.

At first, according to mainstream media polls, Ishiba seemed a favorite for the post of prime minister and aimed to bolster his party’s waning popularity through personal consensus. However, according to the latest polls published by Kyodo News, it appears that the second formation of the coalition (Komeito) could lose support, which would prevent it from achieving a parliamentary majority, confirming a climate of distrust among voters. Furthermore, Ishiba has often shown uncertainties and conflicting opinions – at least in his statements – on economic and security policies since taking office, raising doubts among voters about his leadership.

On the opposition front, always according to the polls, the main camp of the Cdpj, recently succeeded by former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda (in office during the Fukushima tragedy of 2011), could reach 98 seats up to 140. We will have to Wait, therefore, until tomorrow afternoon, and the following days, to know what the response at the polls will be, but more than one independent expert points out that the risk of a setback for the current prime minister is strong. So much so that, according to some rumors, the former Minister of Economic Security – and loyal to Shinzo Abe – Sanae Takaichi is working to take over the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party in case of bad results for Ishiba in a framework of uncertainties and tensions, both internal and international, from Asia-Pacific to the Middle East.