RED LANTERNS The US presidential elections and the absence of the “Chinese letter” in the electoral debate

Trump shows a more aggressive and isolationist approach, Harris appears more cautious and inclined towards stability. Regarding Beijing, on the American side the desire to protect national interests prevails. Over the years, China has softened the tone of “wolf warrior diplomacy.” And he looks ahead to the November 5 vote without officially exposing himself, although he seems to be betting on the Democratic candidate.

Milan () – There are just a few days left until the presidential elections in the United States and, while the confrontation between the two candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, continues, there is an issue that stands out for its practical absence in the electoral debate: that of relations with Beijing. The “Chinese card”, which has always been played to criticize the management of bilateral relations between the United States and China and discredit the current adversary, seems to have lost effectiveness compared to previous elections. Questioning the reasons for China’s lack of involvement in the political discourse prior to the vote is The Diplomat magazine, which in a recent article attributes the cause to the appearance of two new circumstances.

Firstly, during Joe Biden’s term in the White House, bilateral relations between the US and China would have reached a state of stability, despite the persistence of serious differences on issues such as Taiwan, the South China Sea and other problems. economical. Thanks to his decades of foreign policy experience, the sitting president has been able to make decisions that satisfy both national and international interests and avoid causing serious disagreements with his Asian rival.

In fact, Biden has maintained the tariffs on Chinese imports established by his predecessor, has intensified measures to counteract dragon technological development in favor of domestic one, and has reinforced the US presence in the Indo-Pacific in an attempt to contain the assertiveness China in the region. At the same time, however, he managed to mitigate hostilities by abandoning the feared Trumpian strategy of “decoupling” the US economy from China in favor of a more prudent policy of “de-risking”, with the aim of limiting dependence on China, without drastically disrupting trade agreements.

According to the magazine’s experts, Trump would have no good reason to criticize the ruling faction’s management of relations with Beijing. Furthermore, Vice President Harris, as the Democratic Party candidate, has the advantage of inheriting Biden’s work and aligning herself with his successes, distancing herself from what are considered his failures.

Foreign policy issues, moreover, seem to have taken a backseat to the most preeminent internal issues and domestic controversies, such as rampant inflation, slowing economic growth, the right to abortion and investigations against the tycoon. This is the other reason why, always according to The Diplomat, the “Chinese card” would not be so attractive for either side in this electoral cycle. Although the 118th US Congress, which took office in January 2023, has introduced more China-related bills than in the past, these have mostly been evaluated from the perspective of the internal benefits and economic competitiveness. Whether it’s banning TikTok, a social network that’s also popular with American users, or blocking tax incentives for Chinese battery companies like Gotion, decisions involving Beijing are increasingly driven by intention to protect American interests first and foremost.

On the other hand, the People’s Republic has also softened the tone of its “warrior wolf diplomacy” (zhan lang waijiao), striving to restore relations with the United States. Proof of this is the recent release of American pastor David Lin, detained in Beijing in 2006 accused of contract fraud.

Only after November 5 will we know whether Trump’s more aggressive and isolationist approach toward the Dragon or Harris’s more cautious and stability-oriented approach will prevail. Until then, unless something significant happens, the “Chinese card” will foreseeably continue to play a marginal role in the electoral confrontation.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government, although it prefers not to officially comment on the US presidential election, appears to have already made its choice, hinting that it has more sympathy for the Democratic candidate.

In an unusual comment made to the BBC, Jia Qingguoa member of the Standing Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, said: “I would prefer Harris because of the bad experience with Trump. “We don’t want it to be repeated.” In fact, during the latter’s presidency, relations between both countries have been very tense, worsening dramatically after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Furthermore, in the event of an election victory, Trump has already threatened to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese products, a decision that could have serious consequences for the dragon economy.

With Harris in the White House, on the other hand, a scenario of greater stability in bilateral relations is envisioned, following in Biden’s footsteps. In this sense, Zhu Junweidirector of the Center for American Studies at the Grandview Institution think tank in Beijing, says: “It is a common opinion among Chinese experts that Harris means more continuity, at least in the first one or two years of her presidency,” adding that ” At the same time, Trump represents a broader range of possibilities, better or worse, with many surprises and potentially more problems for China, the United States itself and its allies, and even for the world.

Zhu’s observations are also shared by Chen Dongxiao, president of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, who says that in China there is a widespread belief that “the second Trump administration would likely bring greater uncertainty, instability and unpredictability than a Kamala Harris presidency.” ».

There’s also another reason Harris is Beijing’s favorite: her choice of Minnesota’s current governor, Tim Walzas a candidate for the vice presidency of the United States. The politician’s background as an English teacher at a high school in Foshan, Guangdong, and his deep knowledge of China make him a figure highly appreciated by Chinese public opinion and predict a promising future for diplomatic relations between both countries. On the other hand, however, Walz’s connection with the dragon has also earned him criticism from Republicans, who have accused him of being too lenient towards China, calling him a “pro-Chinese Marxist.”

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