KAZAKHSTAN “Nuclear diplomacy” between Russia and Central Asia

The referendum in which 71% of Kazakhstan’s voters approved the construction of a new nuclear power plant is considered a great opportunity for the Russian company Rosatom, one of the giants of the Russian economy that is overcoming the weakening phase of the war. and that is currently building 20 reactors abroad.

Astana () – The referendum held in Kazakhstan on the construction of a new nuclear power plant, according to many international and national media, has been little more than “political theater” to justify Kazakhstan’s ambitions in the energy and economic sectors . The authorities have assured that the plant will be entrusted to an “international consortium”, but commentators believe that the key contract will be with the Russian company Rosatom, which will create a game of back and forth between Moscow and Astana.

The Kazakh government insists on the need to achieve energy security, while critics express concern about the country’s ecology, especially if the reactor is to be located near the increasingly parched Lake Balkhaš. They also talk about the risks of corruption, doubting the government’s ability to guarantee the transparency of the project. The voices of opponents before the referendum were stifled in various ways, despite the fact that popular assemblies were held in all cities of Kazakhstan.

In the end, the predictable result was the approval of the plant with 71% of the votes in favor, and in addition to Rosatom, several companies from at least four countries are competing for its construction. Keep in mind that Russia controls 95% of Kazakhstan’s oil export routes, and the nuclear power plant could give the Kremlin new influence over the entire Kazakh energy sector.

In the American magazine Diplomat, specialist Akilbek Tilavoldiev, a researcher at Tashkent State University, writes an analysis of the situation, in which he highlights the importance of the upcoming US presidential elections also for energy issues in Central Asia. No American president has ever visited this region, but recent contacts according to the 5+1 format (which already began during the presidency of Barack Obama) make relations between the United States and the five countries more sensitive today. During the presidency of Donald Trump, the document on the “US Strategy in Central Asia for 2019-2015: Strengthening sovereignty and economic flourishing” was approved.

A victory for Trump would mean the reactivation of this strategy, with a very pragmatic approach for the mutual economic benefit of the partners. If Kamala Harris wins, however, according to Tilavoldiev, “social and ecological aspects will prevail,” and everything could be called into question. Russia is watching, but the Kazakh project could offer an important way out of isolation due to the sanctions regime, and Moscow insists on support for nuclear energy not only in Kazakhstan, but throughout Central Asia.

Uzbekistan has already signed an agreement with Russia for the construction of a small nuclear power plant by Rosatom, and a similar project is also being studied in Kyrgyzstan. According to Kacper Szulecki, a researcher at the Institute of International Affairs in Oslo, “Central Asia occupies a special place in Russian nuclear energy diplomacy due to its post-Soviet legacy, and Rosatom can work there more freely than anywhere else,” having taking into account the lack of language barriers, personal and institutional contacts and other social, political and economic factors.

The security risks of new nuclear power plants are also considered, an element that became evident in Russia’s conflict in Ukraine. The risk of sabotage would not be especially high, but the destructive potential would clearly be very high and a source of great apprehension. Rosatom is one of the last giants of the Russian economy that is still resisting the weakening of the war phase, being the supplier of 26 of the 59 energy blocks that are currently being built around the world, 20 of them outside Russia: Bangladesh, China , Egypt, India, Turkey and others, to which must be added the crucial centers of Central Asia.

Photo: a poster to vote in the Kazakhstan nuclear referendum (Wikimedia/Muzaffar Turgunov)