Chacarita enlarged

Argentine politics in this century is quite different from what we experienced in the first two decades of this democracy. Of course, several vernacular factors contributed to the change, such as the 2001 crisis, the commodities boom, the destructuring of the opposition to Kirchnerism, etc. But beyond the local contribution, we are experiencing one of the greatest moments of “all inclusive” transformations since the appearance of the Neolithic. One of those changes is the breaking of certain codes.

The descendants of leadership have always been traumatic in universal history, but now they have become more problematic than ever at all levels. Perón did not have children, which allowed him to declare that “my only heir is the people” (and he said it alongside his wife). In other words, “guys, you handle it.” And the boys, in the short or long term, managed it. Indeed, the organization defeated time.

As the codes of loyalty – and the ability to keep them in force – were eroded in the liquid era, many leaders concluded that some member of the family was ideal to take care of the political capital built by the pater or mater familia. Therefore, the proliferation of wives, children, brothers and sisters who try to shine in the shadow of the leader should not draw attention. Cristina Kirchner is in that situation today: either she is a mother, or she is the leader of the group so that there are no children and subordinates. Everything seems to indicate that her decision is to be a mother, regardless of how the PJ’s renewal of authorities ends.

Since the boys were always a little unruly, Perón agreed with everyone and then made each one eat a different toad (in addition to the ones he ate so that they would continue to be Peronists). And those who no longer wanted to be, one day they left.

Peronism – Kirchnerism has already cracked, at least under the unity with Cristina. Some already believe that she should retire after Alberto’s failed experiment, and others respect her if she is a driver and not a mother. The heir/s are not respected outside their own sphere. Critics believe that if she were not there, they would represent very little.

How would Kicillof look in this context? Calculations in politics are not univocal because there are always many edges to consider. That CFK has challengers for something like the presidency of something that she always despised and that they object to Máximo, is a sign of structural wear. As the leader of a relevant social movement told me last year, “the base is no longer asking about Cristina, now they are asking about Milei.” In other words, even if there is a unity list, even if Quintela resigns aspirations, or the Buenos Aires governor says “there is peace and unity”, it means that the dissidents – what a term for Peronist history! – will have advanced several boxes. Cris only needed an impeccable clamor operation. That didn’t happen anymore. When you have to challenge a subordinate it is because they are confused, or your leadership method is no longer working. It is also worth saying that Kici has very few chips in the provincial legislature, which could lead to some bad times.

El Dibu continues to cut corners

This fragmentation, which was going to be expressed sooner or later after the defeat of 2023, has benefits and problems for the government. The enormous and obvious advantages are two: 1) the main opposition – the one that won the first round, don’t forget – can enter a path of internal struggles that could complicate it next year; and 2) if she is the formal head of the PJ, she is the perfect counterfigure to organize the Argentine political debate. But, there is always a but, a “disorderly” opposition – as Cris described it – cannot guarantee that political agreements are fulfilled. For example, what do we do with Lijo? And with the Court? Are they going to complicate my life in the bicameral intelligence services? How do we distribute the judges who are in the folder? And what do we do with the attorney? Chaste, you did me wrong and yet I want…

The ruling party has so many reasons to celebrate that the Peronist intern is not too concerned, nor is the university conflict. Argentina was a party, Hemingway would say. Inflation is low, as is the country risk, energy exports are shining, Argentine bonds are rising, the blue dollar is hibernating, it rained a little and favors corn, companies take on debt in dollars because “they see it”, the IMF finally lowered the on rate (thanks Alberto and Guzmán for so much dignity), the IDB gives us more credits. How fantastic, fantastic this party! The markets believe the “cuddly kitten”… for now (because those who betray are not only the Peronists).

Although the government does not like it, a judge did it a great favor by decreeing the illegality of the dismissal of the three Aerolíneas pilots who had refused to transfer a plane to the United States. With this measure, the company’s head of operations He was confirmed in office with the approval of the union, and the promotion festival was unleashed because the path was clear in the short term. As we said two weeks ago, if the conflict persisted, Argentina would have been largely disconnected for an indefinite period. Another penalty saved. Will the judge be part of the forces of heaven?

There are 18 days left until the crucial American election, which remains open-ended. What many fear is that the winner – whoever it may be – will take over both chambers, because both Kamala and Donald would be tempted to increase the fiscal deficit, which could trigger a new rate increase by the Federal Reserve. That would be bad news for the world, but especially for Milei and Toto, because our export dollars would weaken and funds would no longer flow for the carry trade, taking into account that we are not accumulating reserves, accentuating our weakness. The question of whether an adjustment to the value of the dollar is necessary is back.

From everything that is heard in the environment, the libertarians (like Chacarita, the president’s club) grew.