Lithuania’s opposition Social Democratic Party is heading for its first victory in 12 years in Sunday’s election

Landsbergis’ conservatives could pay for social discontent, expressed in the rise of new radical parties

Oct. 12 () –

The Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) is the favorite to achieve its first major electoral victory in a decade in the parliamentary elections that begin this coming Sunday in the Baltic country, where social unrest could end up leading to the defeat of the conservatives of the Union of the Homeland of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gabrielius Landsbergis, and the rise of more radical and new parties such as the nationalist and eurosceptic Dawn of Nemunas.

At the head of this formation is Remigijus Zemaitaitis, once expelled from the conservative Freedom and Justice and later tried for making “anti-Semitic statements” — Zemaitaitis has advocated the death penalty against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his offensive against Gaza –, and right now he leads the third party by voting intention.

The majority parties have promised that they will not engage in talks with this formation but the situation could change depending on the outcome of the elections, where up to seven parties could obtain the 5 percent of votes necessary to enter the chamber.

The victory of the LSDP could mean that the former Minister of Social Affairs Vilija Blinkeviciute ends up becoming the country’s new prime minister, and strengthen, according to analysts consulted by Bloomberg, the position of the country’s president, Gitanas Nauseda, who does not have a good relationship with Landsbergis, although both agree in their unwavering support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion of the country.

It remains to be seen if the planned increase in defense spending ends up further exacerbating the popular unrest that will greatly condition these elections, which will end with the second round on October 27. However, given that the first round on Sunday already decides half of the seats, the extent of this discontent could be known in a matter of hours.