This Friday it added 0.35% after the US employment report
Oct. 4 () –
The Ibex 35 this week ended a streak of three consecutive weeks of growth by recording a depreciation of 2.58%, reaching 11,659.2 points, in a period marked by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prospects for monetary policy.
The main indicator of the Spanish market has thus decisively moved away from the highs achieved last week at the edge of 12,000 integers, which allowed it to rub shoulders with levels not seen since 2010.
For market analyst Manuel Pinto, this week has had a “clear” geopolitical role: “The escalation of tension in the Middle East keeps investors on alert, waiting for Israel’s possible response to the latest attacks received by part of Iran,” he stated.
In this sense, Pinto has focused on the fact that the characteristics of the area and a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which up to 40% of the world’s oil trade transits, have caused large increases in the price of a barrel, which headed for its biggest weekly rise since early 2023.
Specifically, a barrel of Brent crude oil, the benchmark in the Old Continent, rose by 9% at the weekly close, to $78.5, while Texas WTI rose by 9.5%, to 74.6 dollars a barrel.
As a warning, this analyst has focused on the fact that, in raw materials, geopolitical conflicts, stimuli from China, the possible overheating of the US economy and rate cuts in the world, invite a new wave of inflation in the coming months.
On the other hand, the Ibex 35 has been penalized in consideration by the correction of banking values, which has a great influence on the calculation of the index.
Pinto explained in this regard that the financial industry is suffering the consequences of global instability and that the economic data published in recent days in Europe has not helped either.
Regarding this last point, he has indicated that the fall in inflation in the eurozone for the first time since 2021 below the objective set by the European Central Bank (ECB) – it stood at 1.8% in September – anticipates a program of cuts more aggressive rates than expected in the region.
In the macroeconomic section, what has stood out especially on the other side of the Atlantic is that the US economy generated 254,000 new non-agricultural jobs during the month of September, a figure higher than the 159,000 created in August, while the unemployment rate fell by one tenth, up to 4.1%.
“This data certainly points to a cut of 25 basis points instead of 50 basis points as seemed to be discounted until now in November,” Pinto pointed out.
Continuing with possible repercussions coming from the realm of monetary policy, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has suggested that the central bank could be more active in reducing rates.
On the other side of the globe and with an opposite mood, Pinto has highlighted the advances of the Chinese stock markets: “The historic monetary and fiscal stimulus measures of recent dates have caused a boost in the region’s selective stocks of more than 30% since the minimums marked in September”, he reflected.
Given this situation, there have only been five stocks that have advanced in the week: Repsol (+4.68%, due to higher oil prices); Solaria (+4.29%, after presenting results); Indra (+2.26%, due to its defense sector); Rovi (+1.73%) and Grifols (+0.74%).
On the other hand, the worst values in the week have been those that would be affected by the rise in oil or by aggressive rate cuts: IAG (-9.79%); Unicaja (-6.61%), Ferrovial (-5.87%); Acciona Energía (-4.88%); Acciona (-4.46%); BBVA (-3.76%) and Banco Santander (-3.76%). Other major stocks, such as Banco Sabadell, Bankinter, Inditex and CaixaBank, have fallen more than 2%.
Losses have been the common denominator in Europe: London has lost 0.48% in the week; Frankfurt 1.81%; Paris 3.21% and Milan 3.26%. For their part, Wall Street indices are content with small provisional declines in the weekly count.
At the European level, it is worth noting the crisis in the automotive sector following the publication of the Italian company Stellantis an estimate of lower than expected income. Linked to this, Brussels is moving forward with tariffs on Chinese cars after reluctant countries, such as Germany, which fears the consequences of a trade war with Beijing, have failed to stop it.
In the currency market, the euro depreciated 1.8% in the week compared to the dollar, to 1.0958 ‘greenbacks’: “The dollar has acted as a refuge for investors,” Pinto pointed out.
The interest rate on the ten-year Spanish bond closed at 2.961% after adding four points in the week, while the risk premium with respect to the German bond remained at 75.3 points.
The troy ounce of gold depreciated 0.3% in the week, to $2,650 – it remains close to its highs – while bitcoin fell 6% and is struggling not to lose the level of $60,000.
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