Existing evidence shows that the COVID-19 pandemic modified the patterns of internal population movements. In previous work, the authors have contributed to this body of evidence by analyzing, for example, the case of Spain and the United Kingdom. However, the evidence they have used focuses on countries in the Global North and has been limited to studying the immediate effects of COVID-19 during 2020. The lack of data has been a significant limitation in analyzing changes in patterns of mobility within the countries of the Global South, including Latin America.
Publication No. 139 of the Population and Development Series uses the notion of “digital footprint” and its relationship with population mobility to try to measure these changes in some Latin American countries. To do this, it uses aggregated and anonymized mobile phone location data from Meta-Facebook users with the aim of quantifying and analyzing the intensities and geographic patterns of internal population movements through the urban hierarchy in Argentina, Chile and Mexico for a period of 26 months, from March 2020 to May 2022.
The results reveal a systematic and widespread decrease in the intensity of short- and long-distance movements during periods with high levels of restrictions in 2020, with greater reductions in the most densely populated areas of capital cities. It is also observed that after the relaxation of the restriction measures, the intensities increased, approaching those recorded before the pandemic. However, at average levels they have remained below pre-pandemic levels even in 2022.
The findings of the study support, in a way, the hypothesis of an urban exodus, as they reveal the persistence of negative net balances in short-distance movements in the capitals of Argentina and Mexico, reflecting a pattern of suburbanization. Chile does not show substantial changes in the net balance of short-distance movements, but registers net losses in long-distance movements. These losses were, however, temporary, moving to neutral or positive balances in 2021 and 2022. This contrasts with the pattern of net migration losses observed in the Santiago Metropolitan Region in the last 20 years.
The authors propose “that the use of fingerprint data is an important asset that national statistics offices and local governments should adopt. The availability of this data in real time allows changes in human mobility to be quickly identified, complementing the use of censuses and surveys, to inform the development of appropriate responses to crisis situations in the context of climate change and the threat of another pandemic, similar or more severe than that of COVID-19.”
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