A club led by Xi Jinpin and Vladimir Putin to counterbalance the US adds a staunchly pro-Russian member

( Spanish) – A club of Eurasian countries led by China and Russia to promote their leaders’ vision of a alternative world order is about to expand again this week, this time with the addition of a strong Russian ally that has openly supported Moscow’s war against Ukraine.

The long-awaited admission of Belarus into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at its annual leaders’ summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, is another push by Beijing and Moscow to transform the grouping from a regional security bloc to a geopolitical counterweight to the institutions Westerners led by the United States and its allies.

Belarus, which helped Russia launch its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, will become the latest authoritarian state to join the club, after Iran became a full member last year.

The leader of China, Xi Jinping, and the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, arrived in Astana for the summit that begins this Wednesday, in what will be their second meeting this year. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leader of the world’s largest democracy, will not attend the meeting, highlighting the discontent of some members about the direction the SCO is taking.

Founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to combat terrorism and promote border security, the SCO has grown in recent years in line with Beijing and Moscow’s shared ambition to counter what they see as the “ hegemony” of the United States and reshape the international system in its favor.

In 2017, the bloc underwent its first expansion to include India and Pakistan. After the incorporation of Belarus, it will have 10 members, representing more than 40% of the world’s population and approximately a quarter of the global economy. It also has two observer states, Afghanistan and Mongolia, and more than a dozen “dialogue partners,” from Myanmar to Türkiye and the Arab states.

The SCO expansion comes after another bloc led by China and Russia, the BRICS group of major emerging economies, more than doubled its membership and greatly expanded its global reach last year.

As the SCO increases its international visibility and economic clout, its geopolitical ambitions have also expanded.

The long-awaited admission of Belarus, a country bordering the European Union, “really highlights how the SCO mission has changed in recent years,” said Eva Seiwert, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). from Berlin.

“Unlike Iran, Belarus’ accession does not achieve much, such as economic or security cooperation. That’s why I think it’s more of a geopolitical movement.”

With Russia immersed in the third year of its bloody war against Ukraine, the SCO has become a crucial diplomatic avenue for Putin, as well as a platform to show that he is not internationally isolated. And as China’s relations with the United States have plummeted, Beijing is less concerned about the SCO being labeled an anti-Western organization, a perception that has only worsened following Iran’s admission, according to Seiwert.

“They want the SCO to be perceived as an important bloc that can no longer be ignored,” he said. “With the accession of all these countries, China and Russia (want to show that) they both have many supporters for their world views.”

And in that shared worldview, there is no place for the United States in Eurasia.

In one meeting With senior officials from his Foreign Ministry last month, Putin laid out a vision for “a new system of bilateral and multilateral guarantees of collective security in Eurasia,” with the help of existing organizations such as the SCO and the long-term goal. deadline of “gradually eliminating the military presence of external powers in the Eurasian region.”

“During my recent visit to China, President Xi Jinping and I discussed this issue. “It was noted that the Russian proposal is not contradictory, but rather complements and aligns with the basic principles of the Chinese global security initiative,” said Putin, who visited Beijing in May.

This global vision of an alternative future will be the “main message” for China and Russia following the SCO summit, according to Bates Gill, senior researcher at the National Asian Research Bureau.

But Belarus’ accession also creates big questions that will hang over the organization, Gill said.

“It creates all kinds of problems and new questions about the reputation, legitimacy and mandate of the organization, given the nature of the Belarusian regime and its support for Russia’s flagrant violation of international law and its invasion of Ukraine,” he said. .

“It is clear that the SCO can tolerate authoritarian regimes, but, for the organization’s mandate, this further diversifies and dilutes its original focus, which was to focus on Central Asia.”

The bloc’s expansion has not been without friction, especially with the admission of bitter rivals India and Pakistan, while tensions between Beijing and New Delhi have also escalated in recent years following deadly clashes on their disputed border. Himalayas.

The group’s increasingly anti-Western orientation following the accession of Iran and now Belarus has also fueled unrest among members wishing to maintain good relations with the West, including the former Soviet states of Central Asia.

“In some respects it puts the Central Asian states in a very uncomfortable position,” Gill said. “They pursue what they like to call multi-track diplomacy. “They don’t want to commit to dealing only with a big power, like Russia or China.”

Gill, who visited Central Asia in April and May, said there is ambivalence in regional capitals about the future of the SCO.

India also seems to be losing interest. Last year, he hosted the summit virtually, a low-key arrangement that allowed Modi to avoid the optics of hosting Putin and Xi in New Delhi as he sought closer ties with the United States.

This year, having just entered his third consecutive term, the Indian leader will not attend the Astana summit, despite the fact that Russian state media They report that he will visit the Kremlin next week.

“This tells us that he does not consider the SCO to be the most effective channel for defending Indian interests in this part of the world,” Gill said.

Even China, the main driver of SCO expansion, is seeking a more direct way to engage with Central Asia, without Russia’s participation.

Last year, five leaders from the region received a lavish welcome at the inaugural China-Central Asia summit in the Chinese city of Xi’an, the starting point of the ancient Silk Road trade route that linked imperial China with the civilizations of its west more than a millennium ago. A permanent Secretariat for the China-Central Asia mechanism was established in the same city in March.

And although China and Russia aim to present the SCO as a counterweight to US-led institutions, it remains a much weaker and less cohesive bloc compared to NATO, the European Union or the Group of Seven.

“Given the expanded membership with India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus, the organization will look even less like a committed alliance or common grouping, and more like a strategic vision type organization… representative of a Eurasian identity,” Gill said. .

After the Astana summit, China will assume the rotating presidency of the SCO for one year.

Seiwert, the MERICS expert, said Beijing will work to find more common ground between member states.

“For China it is important that the SCO does not fail, that it is perceived as a success. “I think they are also aware of all the difficulties that have arisen with all these expansions,” he indicated.

“If it continues to expand – if Russia and China continue to push for it to do so – I think its regional relevance will decline.”