After the election of the anti-establishment President Dissanayake, the country’s political and ruling class is impatiently awaiting the early voting on November 14. The role of the smaller forces, which make up 25% of the electorate, will be decisive. In the background is the international dynamics and the framework of relations with China and India (and the West).
Colombo () – Once the presidential election is archived with the rise of the leftist and anti-establishment candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayakenow the political panorama of Sri Lanka revolves around the parliamentary vote scheduled for November 14, in which the 225 representatives of the Assembly will be elected. The 16th Parliament was officially dissolved on September 24, before its natural expiration in August 2025. In these weeks of frenetic anticipation, new alliances – as well as disagreements between once close factions – are being studied before a big round of elections.
Interviewed by , political analysts Kanishka Gamage and Rajni Samarasinghe point out that “the parliamentary elections take place at a critical moment in the nation’s political and economic history, after the widespread protests of 2022. In a country like Sri Lanka, in default and unable to pay their debt, most political parties actively seek alliances to maximize their electoral opportunities. The objective, they continue, is to forge “alliances with smaller parties, particularly with minority parties, which are significant since they constitute around 25% of the electorate.”
“The Tamil political parties, the Muslim Congress and the All Ceylon Muslim Congress, have also been decisive,” they warn, “in the past presidential and parliamentary elections.” In contrast, the National People’s Power (NPP), led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayaka, is unlikely to have significant support from minority communities, as it has not historically cultivated deep relationships with these communities. Although the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (Slfp) is a smaller party (with 13 MPs in the previous parliament), it retains the ability to mobilize votes through its traditional grassroots mechanisms,” note Kanishka and Rajni. At the same time, the United National Party (UNP), led by former president Ranil Wickremasinghe, and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), led by former opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, are in talks to merge and contest as one cluster.
Meanwhile, the Sri Lankan Podujana Peramuna (Slpp) is strengthening the party by appointing new members, especially youth and professionals, as constituency organisers. Although his main objective is not to win the elections and send members to Parliament, his main objective so far remains to strengthen the party. An option that seems to be gaining followers, to the point that some politicians who left the party to support other candidates try to return, but encounter resistance among those who have remained loyal to the party.
According to the general secretary of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (Slfp), Dayasiri Jayasekara, who leads the faction that supported presidential candidate Sajith Premadsa, “we will participate in the parliamentary elections as Samgi Jana Sandanaya, (a new alliance).” The party, he warns, “will resolve legal issues and internal problems after the elections.”
Political science professors Malinda Semasinghe and Sampath Tennakoon state that “the outcome of the elections could also significantly influence the nation’s geopolitical dynamics: in particular,” they warn, “in relations with regional powers such as India, the great Western powers and China. According to common opinion, the NPP party is considered to be “closer” to India and Western powers, while an eventual majority – and government – with NPP traction would end up strengthening ties with China.
Add Comment