Roxana Muñoz, analyst for Pemex at Moody’s, indicated that Pemex’s financial requirements for 2025 are not so worrying, because surely the Mexican government is already considering them, but those that are are those of 2026, the year in which there will be a peak.
Pemex’s requirements for 2025 are 16.9 billion dollars, for 2026 they rise to 19.1 billion and by 2027 they fall to 14.2 billion.
The 2026 peak is explained by a debt maturity of $12.2 billion, a figure that doubles next year’s maturities of $6.2 billion.
Muñoz points out that Pemex’s financial requirements in 2026 will double compared to the annual average of the last five years, which was 9,000 million dollars.
“There is a lot of uncertainty about what the next administration is going to do to face these risks and one of our scenarios that is the most plausible, given the messages that the next president has given, is a powerful debt restructuring, especially of the maturities. in 2026 and 2027, which are the years where the highest peaks of long-term maturities are.
This resolves part of the financial requirement, but it is not the entirety, it only helps mitigate liquidity pressures.
The specialist pointed out that something important about the government’s support is that it maintains the rating at B3, since if it did not have it, its real credit rating would be Ca, that is, with a high degree of risk of non-compliance (80%) of its financial commitments. .
In the panorama of support for the payment of its financial debt, Moody’s sees that Pemex could not refinance these amounts on its own, because it would have a very high interest rate, so a possible solution is a restructuring with the help of the government through a guarantee or an increase in debt from the federal government.
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