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In the fourth stop of The Road to the White House (the podcast) we analyze how demographics, population characteristics and their fluctuations shape each election. And in the current United States presidential campaign, ethnic minorities have a special weight. The demographic groups of Latin, Arab, Asian and Afro descent, together, represent approximately 35% of the total votes, which will designate the new president of the country, the Senate and local offices in some states.
In the elections of November 5, 2024, the vote of the Latin, Afro, Asian and Arab communities could add up to approximately between 33% and 34% of the total electorate, representing more than 80 million voters. This increasingly diverse and growing bloc will be decisive in defining the political future of the United States.
At this stop on the Road to the White House we describe how the demographics of the United States are made up and we detail the new population configuration of the country. These communities have historically had their right to vote limited by state political determinations that seek to limit their participation through discriminatory laws, bureaucratic barriers, and voter suppression practices.
Some state legislatures have implemented measures that make it more difficult for minorities to vote, such as strict identification requirements, purges of voters from the rolls and the reduction of polling places.
Likewise, gerrymandering, also known as gerrymandering, It has often limited the voting power of minorities by redistributing district boundaries to favor certain political parties, thus reducing the influence of these groups in elections. Although these practices were prohibited by the Voting Rights Act of 1965, some states still implement them.
The awakening of the giant: Latinos ready to make a difference in 2024
Latin Americans, from Central America, South America and the Caribbean, recognize, according to the Pew Research Centerthat the economy, health, crime and access to weapons are the main priorities in next November’s elections. This population group, which has historically voted for Democrats, could be opting for other options in these elections.
In the next elections, the largest political minority, will have 36.2 million votes. A figure similar to the population of Peru or Saudi Arabia.
Most of these communities are located in California, followed by Texas. However, the attention of the campaigns is focused on other states such as Nevada and Arizona where the vote of these communities can change the balance towards Democrats or Republicans.
The new face of the American electorate: the growing impact of the Arab, Asian and black vote
The impact of the Afro-descendant, Arab and Asian communities’ vote in the 2024 elections will be crucial, with each group playing a determining role in key states.
The black votewhich represents around 13% of the national electorate (32 million people), will be particularly decisive in states such as Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina, where its high turnout could decide the result.
Asian voterswho make up approximately 5% of the electorate (12 million people), will also be decisive in Nevada, Virginia and Texas, where their growing presence can tip the balance in competitive districts. In this group, it stands out that the population from or descended from Indians leads the population census among Asians.
Even though he arab vote It is more difficult to quantify, it is estimated that it could represent up to 2% of the electorate (2-4 million voters). Its impact will be particularly notable in states like Michigan and Ohio, where Arab communities are more concentrated and politically active.
Arab communities have protested against President Biden’s administration for foreign policy decisions towards the Middle East, especially with respect to unrestricted military support for Israel in the midst of a high-intensity war that has claimed the lives of civilians, mostly Arabs.
In previous episodes we analyzed the Democratic ‘balancing’ to stay in power and the not-so-renewed Republican commitment to ‘make America great again’.
Subscribe to Road to the White House! Available in Spotify, DeezerTune In, ApplePodcast and our website. An original podcast from France 24 in Spanish.
Presentation, script and research: Marta Moya and Julián Ramírez Castro
Editorial direction: Ángela Gutierrez and Fabián Cristancho
Editing, editing and post-production: Rodrigo Rodríguez de Loro podcast
Music: Audionetwork and RFI Instrumental
Graphic development: FMM graphic studio
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