NASA predicts irreversible sea level rise in Pacific nations

September 26 () –

Millions of people in Pacific island nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati and Fiji will experience at least 15 centimeters of sea level rise in just the next 30 years.

According to a prediction New analysis from NASA’s Sea Level Change Science Team, This amount of increase will occur regardless of whether greenhouse gas emissions change in the coming years.

In addition to the overall analysis, the agency’s sea level team produced high-resolution maps showing which areas of different Pacific island nations will be vulnerable to flooding from high tidesalso known as nuisance flooding or sunny-day flooding, by the 2050s. The maps, released Sept. 23, outline the potential for flooding under a range of emissions scenarios, from best-case to worst-case.

“Sea levels will continue to rise for centuries, leading to more frequent flooding,” he said. in a statement Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, who leads ocean physics programs in NASA’s Earth Science Division, said: “NASA’s new flooding tool tells us what the potential increase in flood frequency and severity will look like in the coming decades for coastal communities in Pacific island nations.”

Team members, led by researchers at the University of Hawaii and in collaboration with scientists at the University of Colorado and Virginia Tech, began with flood maps of Kiribati, Tuvalu, Fiji, Nauru and Niue. They plan to build high-resolution maps for other Pacific island nations in the near future. The maps can help Pacific island nations decide where to focus mitigation efforts.

HIGH TIDE FLOODING

The sea level change team’s analysis also found that the number of high tide inundation days in an average year will increase by an order of magnitude for nearly all Pacific island nations by the 2050s. Portions of the NASA team’s analysis were included in a report on sea level rise released by the United Nations in August 2024.

The areas of Tuvalu that currently experience less than five days of high tide flooding per year could have an average of 25 flood days per year by the 2050s. The regions of Kiribati that today experience less than five days of flooding per year will experience an average of 65 flood days per year by the 2050s.

Flooding in island countries can be caused by the ocean inundating the land during storms or during exceptionally high tides, called king tides. But it can also occur when salt water enters underground areas and pushes the water table to the surface. There are points on the island where seawater will be seen bubbling up from beneath the surface and severely flooding the area.