We thought the Sahara was going to "eat" to Almería and Murcia in the future. Some researchers believe that it will reach Mallorca

Talking 25 years ahead, and especially in terms of weather forecasts, is a murky area. No one can certify what will happen, not in 25 years, but in the next five. For these cases, science applies statistics and historical data to make theoretical forecasts. One of these latest works is striking because the scenario that is proposed for 2050. If things do not change by then, the map of Spain It could certainly look different.

The study. A team from the Polytechnic University of Catalonia (UPC) in Barcelona has noticed a fact: over the last 50 years, summer has increased by an average of 36 days across Spain. In other words, the Peninsula seems to be trending towards a more “desert” climate, or perhaps there are variables that we are missing?

Under this premise, the researchers found that Spain does indeed have “good” numbers to be the Mediterranean country on the front line of climate change in Europe. It doesn’t have to happen, of course, but they predict that By 2050, rainfall will decrease by up to 20% compared to current levels.

Desert. It is suggested that the consequence of this decrease in rainfall would cause Spain to go from a temperate Mediterranean climate to a steppe climateor even desert, according to the Köppen system that divides the world into five different climatic zones based on plant growth.

In the study, presented at the International Meteorological Congress of the European Meteorological Society (EMS) in Barcelona at the beginning of September, they stress that “the warming process resulting from climate change has been very pronounced in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands, which represents a real hot spot.”

What we know about the “Spanish” warming. To arrive at these somewhat catastrophic predictions, the researchers relied on known data. Namely: between 1971 and 2022, temperatures in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands have increased by 3.27 °CThe figure is not insignificant, especially when compared to the global average of 1.19 °C and the Mediterranean average of 1.58 °C.

More data. When the summer season arrived, when the daily maximum temperature was 25 °C or more, the days increased from 82.4 in 1971, to 117.9 in 2022. In other words, we are talking about an increase of 43%to which we must add that summer has lasted an average of 36 days throughout the country.

Similarly, tropical nights, when the mercury does not fall below 25 °C, increased from 1.73 to 14.12. Where? Mainly in the Southern Plateau, the valleys of the Guadalquivir and Ebro rivers, as well as on the Mediterranean coast, They point out in the study.

Heat waves. Another of the legs analyzed. According to the university’s work, the frequency of heat waves has increased from less than one per year on average between 1971 and 1980, to almost two in the decade from 2013 to 2022. Plus: they have become longer, lasting three to nine days on average.

Climate change and precipitation. Researchers say their projections showed a “strong relationship” between rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall in Spain over the last 50 years. In this regard, between 1971 and 2022, rainfall decreased at a rate of 0.93 mm per year, leading the country to greater episodes of drought, a situation that has been affecting citizens and workers.

Interestingly, extreme rainfall has increased in most of Spain. Here we are talking about torrential rains (more than 60 mm/day), which have increased in places such as Andalusia, Castilla La Mancha, Murcia, Valencia, southern Catalonia, the Balearic Islands, Aragon, Navarre, the Basque Country and Asturias. Also important, The study points outThese downpours are concentrated especially on the Mediterranean coast, and it is recalled that extreme rainfall can cause flooding and in no way compensate for droughts.

Steppe Spain. With all the data described above, the researchers explain that, if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory, the average daily temperature in Spain will reach 15.84 °C in 2050This is 1.43°C warmer than the average temperatures of the past 10 years. And by mid-century, summer days would increase by 22.7 and tropical nights by 7.2 on average across the country, compared to the 2013-2022 period.

At this point, the study highlights that the prediction indicates that Droughts, far from abating, will continue to lengthenwhich will cause a “fundamental change” in the climate of Spain, which, always conditionally, would go from a Mediterranean climate with warm summers, as Spain has been known in recent centuries, to a cold semi-arid climate in some areas, according to the Köppen system. In other words, in Spain by 2050 a “cold” steppe climate would dominate, almost desert-like, leaving little more than the name of the characteristic Mediterranean climate.

Murcia, Almeria and… Part of the study’s predictions are the result of something we have been saying for a long time: desertification is devouring Spain from the southeast, with Almería, Murcia and Alicante as the main actors. In the 2000s, the arid zones of the Iberian Peninsula were concentrated in 307 square kilometres around Tabernas. Today, they are already 7,101 square kilometres.

In June we explained that, with 3,025 square kilometres of arid land, extreme desertification already affects 34% of the entire province of Almería and, with 2,983 km2, 26% of the province of Murcia. A process that is also spreading to Alicante (733 km2) and Granada (53 km2). Put more simply, the desert is devouring Spain from the southeast and the worst of all is that there is nothing to indicate that it will stay there.

The problem of desertification. It FAO explained by detailing the importance of soil organisms as an essential element of nutrient cycles (they regulate organic matter, capture carbon and gas emissions, increase the volume and efficiency of nutrient absorption and generally improve plant health). It turns out that desertification destroys this entire process and denatures entire regions, each with its own ecosystem, a real disaster.

We said it a while ago, the future of Murcia and Almeria is to become large deserts. The added problem is that a good part of the Peninsula will too. If the forecasts of the latest work are close to reality in 2050, or if the Hadley cell moves, saying that Spain could become part of the Sahara desert would not be far-fetched.

Image | Graeme Maclean

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