economy and politics

The Government assumes that Puigdemont is far from being its partner again: “Everything has changed since Illa’s investiture”

The Government assumes that Puigdemont is far from being its partner again: “Everything has changed since Illa's investiture”

The PSOE and Junts are already preparing a new working meeting at the highest level while pessimism is taking hold among Pedro Sánchez’s party about the possibility of once again counting on Junts as an ally in Congress in the short term.

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The image of Pedro Sánchez in his seat this Tuesday in the face of a new parliamentary defeat for his government is the still photo of a legislature that is going through its most turbulent hours. The president does not usually attend the votes of the first plenary session of the week unless they are important, the numbers to get it through are tight and there are also guarantees that they will be successful. But the seven Junts deputies decided to once again display a show of force and inflict a blow on him live and in person.

Without warning, Carles Puigdemont’s men manoeuvred in extremis to break their word and go from abstention to ‘no’ in the Bill to limit seasonal rentals and housing speculation in city centres. So, together with the strength of the votes of PP and Vox, they knocked down the parliamentary process of the initiative. One more.

The scene is a faithful reflection of the political situation that the Government has been facing since the summer. The Junts deputies have broken away from the parliamentary majority that supported the Executive and have begun to operate in important votes as another opposition group alongside the PP and Vox. A scenario that the PSOE does not see having a remedy in the short term and that the Executive attributes to a reaction to the pact between the PSC and ERC to preside over the Generalitat.

“Everything has changed since Salvador Illa was sworn in,” laments the president’s team, which assumes that the parliamentary process of each law that passes through Congress could become a nightmare in the coming months. “We hope they will reconsider, but for now what we have is this, a speech that is at times incendiary, which we assume is influenced by their own internal process. They have to digest that Illa is president and realize that it is not sustainable to always side with the PP and Vox,” reflects one of the members of the Government closest to the president.

Pessimism is rife within the ranks of the PSOE for now. The dialogue with the leadership of Junts is ongoing and they are waiting for the Catalan separatists to schedule a new meeting at the highest level between Carles Puigdemont and Santos Cerdán, the socialist organisation secretary and the former president’s main interlocutor. That meeting, for which Ferraz is still awaiting a date, is marked in red on the Junts calendar and both parties agree that the future of the legislature will largely depend on what is discussed, agreed or committed to. And both sides are also preparing for the meeting to become a harsh exchange of reproaches.

“The Spanish government must not forget that it does not have an absolute majority,” Puigdemont himself posted on his social networks on Wednesday after criticizing his party for rejecting the housing proposal in Congress and acting as opposition alongside the PP and Vox. “When it has digested that a minority government cannot act as if it had an absolute majority, we will all win. Because it will mean that it will replace imposition with negotiation, and will not confuse the willingness to negotiate and reach agreements with a vocation to be a mat where you can dry your shoes before entering the house,” he continued.

The former president’s message, in reality, once again leaves the door open to future negotiations and future agreements. Although, in passing, he reminds us that the price of the seven Junts deputies will never be cheap for Pedro Sánchez. “Losing respect for those who have the votes you need, and not sweating the shirt trying to win them over with each vote is the most direct path to failure. I repeat: these were the rules of the game that we set out from day one, so you cannot act surprised. A decree, a law, an appointment is not negotiated? Then our vote cannot be taken for granted. Ours, not,” warned Puigdemont.

Although there are those in the Government who believe that the internal congress of Junts at the end of October can help clear the way and return Puigdemont to the path of parliamentary collaboration, there are also voices that are beginning to sound the alarm that this drift may not have a way back. Because nobody expects, in fact, that anything other than a reinforcement of the leadership of the former president and, therefore, of the hardest political line of the Catalan independence movement will come out of this congress. And because no progress is expected in the short term regarding the application of the amnesty to his legal situation.

The question is what will happen if months go by and the blockade persists in the face of a right-wing opposition parliamentary majority with the PP, Vox and Junts against the Government. The president’s message is resounding: continue forward no matter what happens. Although there are few who believe that a situation of extreme parliamentary minority with hardly any room to push through reforms is sustainable either in the medium or long term.

Therefore, the next step of the Government will be to present a draft of the General State Budget in Congress and wait for the wind blowing from Waterloo to change. The Executive does not hide the fact that the expectations today to be able to obtain Junts’ support for these accounts are almost non-existent. But they also leave the door open for the passage of months to help break the deadlock.

“We really hope they will reconsider. They now have to face a period of reflection and we respect that. But these budgets will be good for Catalonia and we will take them to Congress, we will debate them and we will defend them. And we have already carried out many agreements that seemed impossible, so this time it should not be different,” reflects another member of the president’s cabinet.

Meanwhile, the second vice-president travelled to Barcelona on Wednesday. The day after Junts’ latest snub in Congress, Yolanda Díaz wanted to sit down with the Catalan employers’ association, which is politically very close to Carles Puigdemont’s party. The official agenda focused on the negotiations for the reduction of working hours that the Ministry of Labour is working on, although the political background is relevant. The PSOE coalition partners’ commitment is clear: rebuilding bridges with Carles Puigdemont to once again raise the house of cards of a parliamentary majority that will allow at least a General State Budget to be promoted that will support the most uncertain horizon of a legislature until 2027.



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