Betting on US election begins minutes after judge allows it

Many people have begun placing bets on which political party will control Congress in the November elections, just minutes after a judge decided on Thursday to allow such bets — the only ones legally approved by a U.S. jurisdiction.

Kalshi, a New York-based startup, began taking bets on the outcome of the congressional election in November after a judge refused to block it from doing so.

The ruling allows the company to offer, at least temporarily, prediction contracts — essentially, yes-or-no bets — on which party will win control of the Senate and House of Representatives in November.

The company and its lawyer did not respond to messages seeking comment, and it is unclear whether they intend to offer any other bets beyond those posted Thursday on congressional races, including wagers on the presidential contest.

It is also unclear whether sports betting companies or online casinos would offer similar political bets following the ruling.

Prices for Kalshi’s so-called prediction contracts fluctuated little after midday. By midafternoon, a bet that Republicans would win control of the Senate was priced at 76 cents; a $100 bet would pay $129.

The bet that Democrats would control the House of Representatives was priced at 63 cents, and a $100 bet would pay $154.

It is not known how long such bets will last; the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which banned the firm from offering them last year, said it would appeal the decision as soon as possible.

Comparing his client to foreign firms that take bets from American clients on the U.S. election without government authorization, Kalshi’s lawyer said the firm is trying to do things the right way, under government regulation.

“The company made significant investments in these markets,” he said at Thursday’s hearing. “They spent millions of dollars. It would be perverse if all this investment went up in smoke.”

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