The Ibex 35 rises 1% after the ECB cut and recovers 11,400 points

September 12 () –

The Ibex 35 closed Thursday with a rise of 1.08%, which has allowed it to return to levels of two weeks ago at 11,400.2 points, in a day marked by the new cut in interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the stock market rises of Inditex and the banking sector.

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided on Thursday to stick to the script and lower interest rates by 25 basis points, so that the deposit rate (DFR) will remain at 3.50%. The president of the institution, Christine Lagarde, has refused to commit to a scheduled timetable.

The interest rates on the main refinancing operations (MRO) and the marginal lending facility (MLF) will decrease to 3.65% and 3.90%, respectively. These changes will take effect from 18 September 2024; as a result, the spread between the deposit rate and the MRO rate will be 15 basis points and the spread between the MLF rate and the deposit rate will be a quarter of a point.

As analysts consulted by Europa Press had assumed, the ECB has resumed its cycle of monetary easing after having paused it at its July meeting, when it opted to maintain the price of money.

As for economic projections, it is worth noting that the ‘guardian of the euro’ has kept its three-year headline inflation forecasts unchanged compared to the June projections. Overall, headline inflation is expected to average 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.

The estimates for the underlying economy in 2024 and 2025 have been revised “slightly upwards” due to services: it will remain at 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026. On the other hand, the ECB has lowered its growth expectations and now anticipates GDP growth of 0.8% in this year, 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, which represents a modification of one tenth less for the three years analysed.

As for the rest of the economic agenda on Thursday, it was learned that inflation in Spain stagnated in August compared to the previous month but cut its interannual rate by five-tenths, to 2.3%, its lowest figure since July 2023.

Across the Atlantic, the US producer price index rose 0.2% in August, reflecting a rebound from stagnation in the previous month.

In this context, Inditex was the most bullish stock (+2.98%) at the close of the session, followed by CaixaBank (+2.62%), ArcelorMittal (+2.36%), Grifols (+2.16%), BBVA (+1.96%), Banco Santander (+1.9%), Banco Sabadell (+1.64%) and Repsol (+1.46%). At the other end of the spectrum were Rovi (-1.73%), Enagás (-1.43%), Fluidra (-1.31%) and Puig (-1%).

On the business agenda, it has become known that some major shareholders of Grifols, through the law firm Araoz & Rueda, have sent several letters to the blood derivatives company, complaining, among other issues, about the cancellation of the ‘Capital Markets Day’ until further notice, which was scheduled to take place on October 10, due to the “lack of transparency” in the process of the possible takeover bid (OPA) by the Brookfield Asset Management fund and the founding family for the Catalan company, according to Europa Press sources at the firm.

For its part, Inditex has reached a new all-time high by raising its share price to 48.82 euros and placing its market capitalisation at 155.27 billion euros.

The rest of the main European stock markets also recorded gains: Paris rose by 0.52%; London by 0.57%; Milan by 0.84% ​​and Frankfurt by 1.03%.

The barrel of Brent crude oil closed at $72.46 in the Old Continent, up 2.6%, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 3.05% to $69.4.

In the debt market, the yield on the 10-year Spanish bond closed at 2.948% after gaining two basis points. The risk premium (the differential with the German bond) thus stood at 80 points.

As for currencies, the euro appreciated by 0.32% against the dollar in the afternoon following the ECB’s decision, reaching a cross rate of 1.1047 greenbacks for each unit of the common currency.

Gold, meanwhile, rose 1.6% to a new high of $2,550, while Bitcoin remained stable at $57,600.