Up to 70% of humanity is exposed to extreme weather by 2050

September 9 () –

Nearly three-quarters of the world’s population can expect strong and rapid changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation in the next 20 years.

This is the prediction of a new study by the CICERO Centre for International Climate Research, supported by the University of Readingunless greenhouse emissions are drastically reduced.

As stated in ‘Nature Geoscience’research shows that 20 percent of the population could face extreme climate risks if emissions are reduced enough to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, compared to 70 percent if limited measures are taken.

Thus, the article shows how global warming can combine with normal climate variations to produce periods of decades of very rapid changes in both extreme temperatures and precipitation.

Few studies have explored the impact that extreme weather events will have on different countries. Dr Carley Iles, lead author of the CICERO research, comments in a statement“We focus on regional changes, due to their greater relevance to the experience of people and ecosystems compared to the global average, and identify regions that are projected to experience substantial changes in rates of one or more extreme event indices over the coming decades.”

The study used large-scale climate model simulations to show that large parts of the tropics and subtropics, encompassing 70 percent of the current population, are expected to experience strong joint rates of change in combined temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20 years, in a high emissions scenario. With strong emissions mitigation, that figure is expected to drop to 20 percent, or about 1.5 billion people.

Rapid changes increase the risk of unprecedented conditions and extreme events that are currently are responsible for a disproportionate share of the real impacts of climate changeFor example, heat waves can cause heat stress and excessive mortality in both people and livestock, stress to ecosystems, reduced agricultural yields, difficulties in cooling power plants, and transportation disruptions.

Similarly, extreme rainfall can lead to flooding and damage to settlements, infrastructure, crops and ecosystems, increased erosion and reduced water quality. Society therefore appears particularly vulnerable to high rates of change in extremes, especially when multiple hazards increase at once.

Co-author Laura Wilcox from the University of Reading said: “We also found that the rapid clean-up of air pollution, particularly in Asia, is leading to an accelerated and co-localised increase in hot extremes and influencing the Asian summer monsoon. While air clean-up is critical for health reasons, air pollution has also masked some of the effects of global warming. However, the necessary clean-up may be combined with global warming.” and lead to very marked changes in extreme conditions over the next few decades.”

Although the new study focuses on the likelihood of rapid change, the authors stress that the results have important implications for climate change adaptation.

“In the best-case scenario, we estimate that rapid changes will affect 1.5 billion people. “The only way to deal with this is to prepare for a situation with a much higher probability of unprecedented extreme events occurring within the next 1-2 decades,” said Dr Bjorn H. Samset of the CICERO Centre for International Climate Research, who contributed to the newly published study.