The Ibex 35 ends the start of September with a 2% drop and moves away from the annual highs

The index lost 0.89% this Friday

September 6 () –

The Ibex 35 ended the first week of September with a 2% drop, reaching 11,173.0 points, affected by the falls on Wall Street – especially in the technology sector – and the doubts of investors regarding the evolution of US monetary policy following the arrival of weak macroeconomic data.

According to market data consulted by Europa Press, the main indicator of the Spanish stock market has cut this Friday – a day in which it has lost 0.89% – a streak of three consecutive weeks of increases that allowed it to close seven days ago at 11,400 points, close to the annual highs reached at the beginning of June at 11,444 points.

Despite this weekly decline, the Ibex has accumulated a revaluation of 10.6% so far this year.

Going into detail on this week’s developments, XTB analyst Joaquín Robles explained that the US labour market once again showed signs of weakness, leading many investors to wonder whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been late in preventing an economic contraction.

Specifically, data released this week in the United States, such as the Jolts job vacancy survey for July and the ADP private employment report for August, pointed to some weakness in the labor market, as well as references such as manufacturing sector activity.

On Friday, it was announced that the US economy generated 142,000 new non-farm jobs in August, a figure much higher than the 89,000 created in July, while the unemployment rate fell by one-tenth, to 4.2%.

According to this expert, the data has been weak enough to make the Fed more dovish, but not weak enough to confirm fears of a recession: “It seems that we are still on track for a soft landing,” he predicted.

Accordingly, Robles said that now that central banks seem willing to start or continue the rate-cutting cycle, speculation is focused on the pace: “Expectations for a 50 basis point cut rose to 35% compared to 65% for a 25 basis point move.”

Within the European macroeconomic agenda, this week it has been highlighted that the gross domestic product (GDP) of the eurozone and the European Union as a whole grew by 0.2% in the second quarter compared to the previous three months, so that for both regions the rate of expansion observed during the first quarter has been reduced by one-tenth, according to the third reading of the data published by Eurostat.

For its part, German industrial production in July registered a fall of 2.4% on a monthly basis, well above market expectations, which had limited the decline to 0.4%.

In the Spanish business sector, the week has been conditioned by the results of the Catalan cosmetics company Puig after having obtained a net profit of 154 million euros in the first six months of the year, a figure 27% lower than that of the same period in 2024.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) notified BBVA of its decision not to oppose the takeover of Banco Sabadell as a result of the proposed takeover bid (OPA). This week, it also received the green light from British regulators for its indirect control of TSB, which is a subsidiary of Sabadell.

It is also worth noting that Repsol shares have fallen to their lowest level since the end of 2022 due to the collapse in crude oil prices on international markets.

Grifols has also suffered significant losses after it was revealed that Brookfield Capital Partners has made its takeover bid (OPA) for the blood derivatives company conditional on paying less for this type of shares.

Given this situation, the stocks with the worst weekly performance have been Puig (-16.4%), Grifols (-7.13%), BBVA (-7.07%), Sabadell (-7%), Acerinox (-5.93%) and Repsol (-5.86%).

At the other extreme, real estate and energy stocks have been the most favoured in a scenario of monetary easing: Colonial (+5.55%), Merlín (+3.6%), Acciona Energía (+3.35%), Acciona (+3.19%) and IAG (+3.09%).

The common denominator in Europe was the downward trend: London lost 2.6%, Milan 3.15%, Frankfurt 3.2% and Paris 3.65%. Across the Atlantic, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq technology index posted weekly declines of 3% and almost 5% respectively due to doubts surrounding the evolution of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and semiconductor companies such as Nvidia.

In other markets, oil remains exposed to weak demand prospects, especially in China, with a barrel of Brent crude, the benchmark in Europe, falling by 7.5% this week to $71.1, while Texas crude fell by 8% to $67.65.

The euro appreciated by 0.23% during the week, reaching an exchange rate of 1.1074 dollars, while the Spanish ten-dollar bond closed at 2.992%, with the risk premium (the differential with the German bond) at 82.5 points.

The troy ounce of gold fell 0.4% over the week, trading at $2,500, while Bitcoin plummeted 8.5% to $54,000 due to net outflows from ETFs (exchange-traded funds) of this type of asset.

KEY POINTS FOR NEXT WEEK

Next week will continue to be marked by the evolution of economic data and the outlook for rate cuts, with the ECB’s rate meeting among the most notable references.

According to Robles, a 25 basis point cut in interest rates is expected for the second time this year, while in the United States the CPI data for August will be of note, which is expected to be below 3% again.

Regarding the publication of corporate results, Inditex will publish them in Spain, while Oracle and Adobe will publish them in the United States.