Science and Tech

Only an exceptionally cold autumn can prevent 2024 from becoming the warmest year on record

Where have the hurricanes gone: we were expecting a historic season and it is turning out to be one, we have gone weeks without any

The news may sound repetitive, but last month the planet beat again its temperature record. But it also did so with more than half a degree difference with respect to the average temperature for this month.

16.82°C. The average temperature of the planet during the month of August this year was 16.82° Celsius according to observations by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This means that the planet has just broken a new temperature record.

The temperature reached in August this year is 0.71º Celsius higher than the average for the month for the period 1991-2020 and puts us on track to break an annual record: the period between January and August 2024 has been 0.7º C above the average for the same period.

This is the 14th temperature record achieved since June 2023. That is, if we exclude July 2024, the planet has more than a year breaking monthly surface temperature records.

Not so much in Europe. This year’s summer has not stood out in Spain for its temperatures. At a European level, August 2024 has not broken the temperature record, but has come in second. Even though it was a warmer August than last year, on our continent the record is held by the summer of 2022.

August this year was 1.57°C above the average for the 1991-2020 period in Europe. In 2022, the difference with the average was 1.73°C.

On the way to an annual record. This data puts 2024 on track to become the warmest year on record. An anomalously cold autumn would be needed for this situation to occur. Specifically, a cold anomaly of 0.3º C would be needed during the period between September and December of this year.

Copernicus. The data has been compiled by the Copernicus European Union Earth Observation Programme. This is a project led by the European Commission in which the European Space Agency (ESA) plays a key role. primary role.

The Sentinel satellites are responsible for compiling data for the Copernicus programme. The first of these satellites was Released in 2014The constellation currently has 7 missions underway and another six in development.

Above 1.5. This means that the average temperature for the month has been 1.51º Celsius above the pre-industrial level. This means that we are still above the imaginary barrier of 1.5º, a barrier that has served as the target in climate policy in recent years.

2023 was a first demonstration of what this increase could imply and 2024 is on track to consolidate this notion. According to experts, there are several circumstances behind this anomalously warm period. Climate change is obviously one of them, but also other factors such as El Niño, the natural climate oscillation that, in its current phase, is associated with higher surface temperatures.

At Xataka | If the weather in summer seems strange to you, prepare for what is coming: it is going to rain in the Sahara desert like no one remembers

Image | C3S/ECMWF

Source link