The Venezuelan government has decided to prosecute and silence opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González Urrutia before January 2025 in order to strengthen its “strategy of fear” and “leave behind” doubts about Nicolás Maduro’s re-election, experts warn.
The Venezuelan Constitution provides for January 10 as the date for the swearing-in of a ruler for a next six-year term. One month after the election and with four months to go before assuming power, the ruling party is moving its pieces to criminally charge the person the opposition identifies as the country’s president-elect.
A judge with jurisdiction over terrorism and corruption cases on Monday authorized an arrest warrant against González Urrutia for alleged usurpation of functions, conspiracy and instigation to disobedience of laws, among other crimes, as part of an investigation into the publication of the minutes of the July vote.
The presidential candidate, 75 years old and who has not been seen in public for just over a month, has ruled out seeking asylum. Chavismo is seeking to prosecute him as the opposition figure who embodies the results of the July 28 election, says political scientist Doriam González.
In his opinion, González Urrutia is the main “threat” to the ruling coalition’s continued hold on power after January 10, 2025, which may not seek to imprison him, due to his age and the effects inside and outside Venezuela, but to exile him or silence him.
“All of this intention is aimed primarily at getting Edmundo González Urrutia out of the country,” says the specialist, who sees a possible house arrest decree to prevent him from speaking about politics.
“It has been done in other latitudes. I don’t think they will imprison him, but rather an alternative regime where he cannot express himself before public opinion,” he said in conversation with the Voice of America.
Tactical Ads
The threat of imprisonment against González Urrutia is “an unprecedented event” and predicting what will happen is a difficult task, says political scientist Leandro Rodríguez Linárez.
Given the hundreds of arrests of opposition leaders, activists and protesters since July 28, he does see the possibility of imprisoning the former candidate, which would be economically, socially and politically counterproductive, he warns.
Political scientist Piero Trepiccione believes that the government is making “tactical” announcements of its political moves, such as the threat against the former ambassador, to gauge the internal and external reaction before acting.
The arrest warrant is part of the government’s “game” of transposing its political problem of not publishing detailed voting results to “other issues”, such as repression and the arrest of hundreds of opponents.
“It’s about everything that can be done to distract attention from July 28 and leave it behind. This strategy began on July 29 and seeks to demotivate and demobilize” the opposition coalition, he says.
Maduro said on Monday that González Urrutia “pretends to be above the law” and accused him of “ignoring” institutions, calling him a “coward.”
Terrorism deepened
Walter Molina Galdi, a Venezuelan political scientist living in Argentina, also believes that Maduro’s government is capable of imprisoning the opposition representative on the ballot and the leader María Corina Machado, considered a key figure in the current anti-Chavez movement.
He believes, however, that Chavismo is seeking to force him into exile.
“We are facing a regime that has decided to deepen its state terrorism. This is part of its strategy of fear. It is more convenient for them that González Urrutia leaves the country, forcing him into exile. That is what they are trying to do right now,” he told the newspaper. VOA.
The permanence of Machado and González Urrutia in the country “is already a pressure” for the Venezuelan government, he says. Although the street protests have been “trampled” by repression, popular discontent and the desire for change “remain intact,” he says.
The experts consulted also agree that the threat of imprisonment against González Urrutia adds to the file of possible crimes against humanity of the International Criminal Court, which also includes the arrest of a hundred adolescents.
Rodríguez Linárez, for his part, concludes that the arrest warrant has “demolished” Maduro’s image before the international community, especially in America and Europe, and the Criminal Court itself.
“It’s at rock bottom, much worse than before” the election, he notes.
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