The speed with which Russia has taken over the city of Krasnokhorivkasouthwest of Avdiivka, still close to the capital Donetsk, is confirmation that Things are not going well for Ukraine on that front.We cannot speak of collapse or predict collapses, but it is true that for months we have been hearing numerous complaints from the front line about the lack of replacements, ammunition and the coordination necessary to oppose an army whose resources are far from infinite, but are obviously superior to the local ones.
The Ukrainian Army It looks like it is exhausted and confusedIt is not that the Russians are much better, hence their advances are still relatively slow along the entire front, but they have the advantage of numbers and overwhelming power: Gerasimov does not mind savagely bombing any enemy city nor does he mind sending thousands of his men to certain death. In Krasnohorivka, Ukraine had the option to resistsomething it has become accustomed to doing throughout this war (we are talking about a town of about 15,000 inhabitants at the beginning of 2022), but it has preferred to save itself that wear and tear, orderly abandoning the area towards better positions.
The problem is that, having taken the enclave, Russia now has many avenues of advance at its disposal and the feeling that it is facing an increasingly demoralized resistance. From Gerasimov’s foresight in protecting his lines of communication and supply throughout the Ocheretyne salient against the ability of Ukrainian drones to punish all that open territory from Selidove and Kurajove, the future of Donbass will depend on it… and perhaps of Zaporizhia.
Beyond Pokrovsk
Because, right now, The question is whether Russia will limit itself to attacking Pokrovsk via Hrodivka. or whether it will aspire to more. It does not seem that Ukraine is in a position to abandon Pokrovsk as it did with Krasnohorivka. It is a very important centre of operations and communications, with 50,000 inhabitants before the war, several railway lines that form the backbone of the Ukrainian Donbas and up to five roads in apparent good condition that connect with the west, the north and the south. There will be a battle and the Russians, suddenly, do not seem to be in a hurry.
A Russian soldier maneuvers a tank in this file image.
Efe
The progress of the last month has been stuck, in large part, also, because The Russians are exhaustedhave their own supply problems and the terrain is not helping: many streams and marshy areas. Hence, also, the urgency of the previous days. As soon as autumn comes, with its frosts and first rains, the place will be filled with mud and every kilometre gained will cost a fortune. Pokrovsk is ten kilometers away, but you have to travel it..
Russia therefore seems to have set its sights further south. While in the north it is trying to expand its zone of control by taking Toretsk, the idea at the other end is to make the salient as large as possible towards Kurakhov to protect itself from any counterattack. The importance of Kurakhov is much more than symbolic. In a way, together with Vuhledar, they act as a hinge between the eastern front and the southern front, that is, between the troops advancing from Donetsk and those who took Mariupol and southern Zaporizhia.
The bombing of Kurajove has intensified in recent days, taking advantage of the weaknesses of Ukraine’s air defence systems, problems that its allies have not been able to alleviate despite Zelensky’s months-long requests for Patriot systems throughout Europe. Kurajove will probably be one of the towns where the men who are now at risk of being trapped west of Novelske will retreat, and would form, together with Vuhledar, further south, The main line of defense against possible attacks on the Zaporizhia region.
The threat to Velyka Novosilka
The greatest danger for Ukraine right now is not only the possible loss of Pokrovsk. This would not be good news, by any means, but in recent months, the most pessimistic analyses have already considered it logical. losing almost the entire Donetsk region after resisting the supposedly second largest army in the world for two and a half years. It would be a painful and undesirable loss.but, to a certain extent, understandable.
Another thing is the way in which these positions are lost, whenever that day comes. If it is done in an orderly manner and protecting both Zaporizhia in the south, like Dnipro in the west, like Kharkiv In the north, Putin’s attack would have been fairly easily stopped. That is why it is so important to hold out around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in the north and why it is so important to prevent a Russian incursion that would break through the aforementioned Vuhledar-Kurakhov line.
Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield in an undetermined location.
Ukrainian Ministry of Defense
If this happens, and we know that there are already Russian troops in the mines north of Vuhledar, that is, in the very space that Ukraine cannot afford to lose, Russia could launch an offensive that would break the Ukrainian defenses in two, trapping the troops that were captured last summer. They tried to advance from Velyka Novosilka towards Tokmak. This incursion would have to be supported from the south, of course, otherwise it would be extremely risky.
Fix pieces to avoid major problems
It would also require a significant military superiority, and that remains to be seen, because the information is diffuse. Daring to break through to the north of Vuhledar and south of Pokrovsk, bypassing both cities and hoping to thus enter the Zaporizhia region to threaten the capital located on the banks of the Dnieper River is a very daring thing to do. The advantages are obvious: you put more territory within your reach and pocket enemy troops or force them to give up the ground from which Ukraine threatened the south conquered by Russia in the first days of the “special military operation.”
The consequences for Ukraine, as we have already said, would be terrible, since any attempt to recover Mariupol, Melitopol or even Crimea would be practically a miracle. But the risks are also immense: basically, Russia must hope that Ukraine has not protected that area well and have to flee in disarray. Besides, from their current positions to Velyka Novosilka there are 35 kilometers, which in this war is no small feat. Zaporizhia capital is directly 200 kilometers away.
If the offensive goes wrong – and the Russians, in this respect, are very risk-free, according to Soviet doctrine – it can cause a setback in their current positions. If it goes well, it drives the Ukrainians crazy, because it multiplies the number of hotspots to watch out for. To give the example of KurskSyrskyi’s troops will never reach either the capital or the nuclear power plant, but they force Russia to protect both targets just in case. The same would happen with Great Novosilka and with Zaporizhia. Russia may take months to arrive or may never arrive, but it forces Ukraine to divert resources. Resources that, as we have seen, are not exactly in abundance.
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