The results of the elections in the eastern German states of Thuringia and Saxony on Sunday dealt another setback for the chancellor, Olaf Scholzand its coalition government for the forceful victory of the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the eastern state of Thuringia, on the one hand; and by the significant transfer of votes from the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) led by Scholz to the newly created far-left party, Sahra Wagenknecht League (BSW) in both states.
Despite being regional elections, these results serve as a thermometer to measure the state of German society and confirm something that surveys and polls had already indicated: growing polarization in the country.
It is the first time since World War II that a far-right party has won in Germany, and there is also concern about the fall of the SPD in favour of the far-left BSW led by Sahra Wagenknecht and which among other things stands out for its positions in favour of Vladimir Putin’s government and his criticism of the blockades imposed on Russia over the war in Ukraine.
According to preliminary official results, in ThuringiaThe Alternative for Germany (AfD) won with 32.8% of the vote, gaining 10 more seats than in the 2019 election; while Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) came in fourth with 6.1% and a loss of 2 seats.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came in second with 23.6% and gained two seats compared to the last election, followed by The Left with 13.1%, which dropped from 29 seats to 12. The Greens and the FDP liberals -partners in Scholz’s government coalition- They did not get there overcome the 5% barrier to achieve parliamentary representation.
Meanwhile, in Saxony The CDU remained the leading force with 31.9% of the vote, although it lost a couple of seats in the regional parliament. The AfD came in second with 30.6% and a total of 41 seats, and The BSW entered as the third party, obtaining 11.8% of the votes. and 15 seats.
In this state, both the SPD and the Greens exceeded the minimum for obtaining representation with 7.3 and 5.1% of the votes, respectively. This could allow a coalition like the one of the last four years was re-established which has governed Dresden, composed of Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Environmentalists under the leadership of the conservative Michael Kretschmer (CDU).
German far-right AfD wins regional elections in Thuringia and comes second in Saxony
In Thuringia, until now governed by the Greens member Bodo Ramelow,
the formation of a coalition with a parliamentary majority could be more complicated. sum of CDU, BSW and SPDwhich in total get 44 seats out of 88, would not achieve that majorityas he points out Frankfurter Allgemeine. To all this we must add the cordon sanitaire of all parties to the far right (AfD).
National coalition in danger?
Speaking to EfeCDU politician Sven Eppinger, who at 5:30 p.m. was still awaiting confirmation of whether he would be able to revalidate his seat in the regional parliament of Saxony, argued that “the elections this Sunday have an impact on national politics and some of its parties.”
“I am thinking especially of the FDP (liberals), which would have to leave Scholz’s coalition government “and thus pave the way for new elections,” said Eppinger at the election party organised by the CDU parliamentary group in the Saxon parliament.
That scenario of new elections, however bad the results may seem for the parties in Scholz’s coalition, will not take place, he said. Efe Wolfgang Merkel, political scientist at the Berlin Center for Social Research (WZB).
In his opinion, calling new elections after the setback suffered by Scholz’s Social Democrats, the Greens and the liberals of the FDP would be a solution with worse consequences than the setback suffered on Sunday. “For the moment, The government coalition is not in danger“Although the parties that make it up will have to think about the causes of today’s defeat,” said Merkel.
“But the scenario of New elections will not take place “Because in a new election, all coalition parties would lose out compared to their current position,” he added, referring to the parliamentary majority that the SPD, the Greens and the FDP still enjoy in the Bundestag (lower house of parliament) as a result of the 2021 general election.
According to voting intention surveys, at a national level, coalition parties could not again form a majority.
Moreover, recent polls have suggested that the FDP would not break the 5% barrier in a new general election, while both the Greens and Social Democrats would be severely weakened in a new electoral test.
AfD’s victory, nuanced
The SPD had already recorded its worst result in a poll in which the entire German electorate participated in the European elections in June, with 13.9% of the vote, behind the AfD (15.8%) and the triumphant CDU (30%).
That is why Scholz prefers to remain entrenched in his coalition because, paradoxically, his weakness keeps it together. “The coalition will remain despite the heavy defeat in Saxony and Thuringia,” Merkel said.
“The AfD is the winner on Sunday, but it is not the strongest in Saxony and the coalition of CDU, SPD and the Greens could be re-elected,” said the political scientist, qualifying the results of the elections in the east, before pointing out that even in Thuringia, where the far-right party won, it does not hold the keys to power.
“The situation there for forming a coalition is so complicated that it is possible that, after many negotiations, new elections will be called in three to five months,” concluded Merkel.
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