Rise of far-right could give AfD victory in Germany’s regional elections

In Thuringia the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), headed by the most radical leader of the party, Bjorn Hockeleads the polls with around 30% of voting intention and clearly ahead of the closest competitor, which It is the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) that is around 21%.

In Saxony, the AfD is in second place in the polls, also with values ​​around 30 percent, slightly below the CDU.

Meanwhile, the three parties in Scholz’s coalition They are lagging behind and even risk being left out of the two regional parliaments..

The SPD has in both federal states about 6.0%, only slightly above the 5.0% threshold.

In Thuringia, surveys indicate that, barring a last-minute rebound, The Greens and the FDPwith 3.3% and 2.8% respectively, stay outwhile in Saxony the Greens, with 5.5%have a chance of being saved and the FDP, with 1.1%is practically ‘given up’.

For The Greens and the FDP It would not be unusual to be left out of a regional parliamentespecially in eastern Germany. For the SPDinstead, It would be the first time in history that this would happen. And if all three are left out, it could even end up calling into question theScholz’s own coalition.

BSW, another populist party

On the other hand, a new populist party – the Sarah Wagenknecht League named after its founder– has complicated forecasts regarding the possible formation of a government in the two federal states.

The BSW is the result of a split from the Left Party within which Sarah Wagenknecht had always represented the most akin to the Marxist origins of the groupWagenknecht was the leader of a group whose name, Communist Platform, was already a declaration of principles.

Wagenknecht justified at the time his decision to leave The Left and to found a new group arguing that the party had focused on defending the interests of alternative urban elites and had forgotten its traditional basemade up of low-income workers.

He also pointed out that the fact that the Left lost votes to the AfD in the east It showed that the party had moved away from the concerns of the people..

Similarities between BSW and AfD

The BSW agrees with AfD on some issues such as the rejection of military aid to Ukraine -the analyst Sascha Lobo has recently written that with the sum of the two parties Vladimir Putin will have an absolute majority in Thuringia and Saxony- and also the rejection of Some policies to combat climate changeIn both Thuringia and Saxony, the BSW is in third place in the polls with 18% and 13% respectively.

A recent study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) has shown that The policies of the BSW and the AfD have similarities in several aspects. Both organizations are in favor of limiting migration, increase deportations of those who have unsuccessfully requested asylum and establish stricter border controls from Germany, among other topics.

Anomalous coalitions

He Rise of AfD and BSWand the fall of the SPD, the FDP and the Left points out that after the elections there will be difficult constellations in the two parliaments that force form anomalous coalitions.

The left may be left out in Saxonyfor the first time in the east, where the polls give him 3.9% . In Thuringia – where he currently heads a coalition with Bodo Ramelow as Prime Minister – has 13.4%less than half of the elections from five years ago cwhen it exceeded 30%.

The Christian Democratic Union The CDU has as its principle – set out in a resolution approved by a federal party congress – not to form coalitions with either the Left or the AfD. Regarding the BSW, there have been disagreements between the party’s federal leadership and regional leaders.

CDU Chairman Friedrich Merz He has described Wagenknecht as someone who is far left on some topics and far right in othersBut the leaders in Thuringia and Saxony may be forced to talk and compromise with the AfD.

In Saxony, however, it is not ruled out that the current coalition, chaired by Christian Democrat Michael Kretschmer and which also includes the SPD and the Greens, achieved a narrow majority. In Thuringia, however, Everything indicates that the leader of the CDU, Mario Voigt, will have to seek a pact with BSW.