Biden’s nuclear panic forces France and UK to ban Ukraine from using missiles on Russian territory

From the beginning of the Kursk incursion, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan made it clear that Ukraine could not use ATACMS from Russian territory itself. The United States recently approved some exceptions to its doctrine of not attacking Russia within its borders, but these exceptions are limited to specific military conglomerations near the border with Kharkiv, with the dual aim of preventing further incursions into the region and limiting the continued bombing of civilians in the capital.

The blockade is otherwise maintained and, apparently, it is being extended to the allies. As always, behind the decision is the “fear of escalation”The Biden administration has been fearing a nuclear escalation by Russia almost since day one of the invasion, buying into every threat coming from the Kremlin.

It should be remembered that Zelensky decided not to even inform his ally of the entry of his men into Kursk because he knew that under no circumstances would they allow him to do so.

These tensions do not help Ukraine at all, of course. The Netherlands, for example, has already declared that They are not going to put any limitations on the use of their F-16s provided that the laws of war are respected and that they are not used in attacks against civilians. The rest watch and cannot always help. The White House has decided to remain in a dangerous middle ground, neither ingratiating itself with the Kremlin nor fulfilling the military wishes of Ukraine. Something very similar, on the other hand, to what is happening in the Middle East.

8 km from Pokrovsk

The White House has pointed to Sullivan as the mastermind behind this “anti-escalation” doctrine that only works in one direction. The Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, I would be willing to allow Ukraine full use of its weapons which have been put at their disposal. We have been at war for two and a half years, all the red lines set by Moscow have been crossed and nothing has happened. Why not allow Ukraine to use the attack as a defensive measure, provided that the objectives are controlled?

Faced with the refusal of its Western partners, Ukraine is making its own long range missileswhich would complement the Neptunes and the drones that systematically attack Crimea, Rostov and various refineries and power plants throughout western Russia.

We are talking about missiles capable of hitting targets hundreds of kilometres away, but they will still take some time to become available and operational. Ukraine cannot wait that long.

And it cannot wait, because the euphoria caused by the success of its incursion in Kursk, which was intended to be a change of scenery in the war and a seizure of the initiative that would lead to the sending of Russian troops from the Donbas, has been followed by a certain pessimism about the situation on the Pokrovsk-Kurajovo-Vuhledar axis, in the south of Donetsk. The Russians are now only eight kilometres from Pokrovsk and in recent weeks their advances have accelerated at a pace that is, it must be said, quite slow.

The tactical double threat

It should be remembered that Russia tends to stagnate, or rather, that Ukraine is a specialist in always finding a way to defend itself. The Russians are on the verge of Chasiv Yar since April and they still haven’t found a way to cross the canal. In fact, they reached Chasiv Yar a year after completing the conquest of Bakhmut, which is just over ten kilometres away. The same can be said of Toretsk or Vuhledar itself, always under siege, always on the verge of collapse, but still under Ukrainian control.

That said, the news coming from the front is not exactly optimistic. The Eastern and Southern fronts could join forces at any moment and take out Vuhledar. In fact, the Russians could have launched an attack from Shevchenko to complete the encirclement of the Ukrainian town.

As to PokrovskRussia presents a double threat: a direct attack on the communications centre – the most important for Ukraine in Donbas after the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk conglomerate – via Hrodivka and Novogodrivka… or bypassing it and attempting to advance along the N15 highway, which would cut the Ukrainian defences in two.

If Russia were to choose the latter, it would be possible to isolate all the defensive troops that remain between the highway and the southern front, heading towards Zaporizhia. It would be a bold decision, of course, and the Russians have not accustomed us to that, but very dangerous for the Ukrainians, since it would put a new region in danger.

Russia has had control over southern Zaporizhia almost since the beginning of the war and has always sought a way to cross the Dnieper and seize the provincial capital.

The chances of success are slim because we have seen that things are moving so slowly in this war, but Ukraine would do well to consider the option of plugging that gap and preparing for a possible incursion. If Gerasimov meets resistance there, he will most likely stick to his original plans, the ones that come most naturally to him: straight ahead until they move away. That is how Russia has won its last wars and that is how it intends to do it in Ukraine. No tactics or strategy. Brute force or nothing.