Haniyeh’s political significance can be understood in three ways. First, Haniyeh was the leader of the Islamic Hamas movement. In recent years, due to Israel’s long-standing control over the Gaza Strip, Haniyeh and other senior members of the Politburo have lived abroad for extended periods, residing in countries such as Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Qatar and Iran. Haniyeh’s death creates a vacuum at the highest level of the Hamas hierarchy, which could affect the stability of its internal power structure.
Secondly, Haniyeh could be considered de jure as the “prime minister of Palestine.” The 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections were the only political elections held in Palestine in recent years. In these elections, Hamas defeated the dominant political force, Fatah, and emerged as the dominant power within the Council.
Haniyeh, a key leader within Hamas, became prime minister and formed a cabinet. However, his authority and Hamas’s victory were contested by Fatah and rejected by the West and Israel. Furthermore, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas “dismissed” Haniyeh from his position as prime minister. Although subsequent Palestinian prime ministers have been directly appointed by Abbas, and since PLC elections have not been held since 2006, Hamas remains the dominant legal political force in the Council, and Haniyeh’s position as prime minister of the government could be partially maintained.
Finally, Haniyeh was one of the key leaders of the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance,” which includes Iran, Syria, Yemen’s Houthis, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraq’s Shiite militias, and the Palestinian Hamas. This coalition is a significant military and political force in the Middle East, in which Haniyeh represented a major pro-Iranian faction within Palestine, with strong symbolic significance.
Haniyeh’s death in the attack will have multiple repercussions. Although it has not been confirmed, most Palestinian and Iranian media claim that Israel is responsible for the attack. This event will likely disrupt the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli peace dialogue. Israel and Hamas were engaged in indirect talks aimed at ending the conflict; but with the death of the Hamas leader, hopes of resolving the conflict are increasingly fading.
On the other hand, tensions between Iran and Israel are likely to escalate significantly. The attack occurred a day after the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who had shown his support for Haniyeh during his inauguration. Haniyeh’s death will inevitably spark anger in Iran, with the more radical sectors demanding retaliation and the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance calling for strong military action. A direct conflict between Iran and Israel could arise, as Al Jazeera News reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that the “criminal and terrorist Zionist regime” faces “severe punishment,” adding that Iran considers it “a duty to avenge the blood” of the Hamas leader.
Overall, Haniyeh’s death has introduced new uncertainty in the Middle East and will likely escalate conflicts between regional actors, leading to an increasingly volatile situation. Accordingly, the international community and relevant actors in the Middle East should closely monitor developments and urgently establish channels of communication between the conflicting parties to mitigate tensions.
Note: This article is republished from CGTN through a cooperation agreement between both parties for the dissemination of journalistic content. Original link.
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