The PP ends the political year as the virtual winner of a general election, but with an advantage that has been diminishing month after month. Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party now has a 1.9 point advantage over the socialists – who this month have risen by a point and a half – and this cushion was once seven points. Below, Sumar continues to fall and the entry of Alvise Pérez deepens the decline of Vox.
The July survey, conducted by Simple Logic According to elDiario.es, the PP would now win an election with 33.5% of the votes, three-tenths less than a month ago. The result, which means having gained only four-tenths compared to the figure of a year ago (33.1%), when the last general election was held, keeps the PP far from the best figures of this political year, in which they have had 36.6% of the votes.
The PSOE is on the rise for the third month, this time with a rise of one and a half points, which means the biggest rise for the socialists from one month to the next so far this year. Pedro Sánchez’s party would be in second position with 31.6% of the votes compared to 30.1% a month ago, a result that leaves them with practically the same as on June 23 (31.7%).
However, the PP’s lead over the PSOE remains at 1.9 points, when it was seven after the opposition to the amnesty boosted it. The gradual decline of Feijóo’s party, which has been on the decline for five months, together with the recovery of the PSOE since May, have narrowed that gap.
Below, Vox maintains third place, but the far-right party has been in decline for two months. From the 12.4% it reached in May, Santiago Abascal’s party has been falling month after month until now being at 10.5% of the votes, registering a drop of one point in this round. The fall coincides with the entry into the political scene of Alvise Pérez’s party (Se Acabó La Fiesta), which would take 3.1% of the votes.
The Simple Lógica survey was conducted between July 1 and 10, so it does not yet reflect the possible effects that Vox’s breaking of the regional pacts with the PP may have.
Sumar remains in fourth place and with bad news. Yolanda Díaz’s party has been going down one place after another for four months until reaching 8.6% of the votes in July, four-tenths less than a month ago. The result leaves the party very affected by the electoral cycle of 2024, far from the percentage it reached in the elections of June 23, when it won 12.3% of the votes and challenged Vox for third place.
Podemos is falling behind this month and losing some of the momentum that came with the good result in the European elections. It now has 2.7% of the vote, compared to 3.6% in June.
The data on vote transfers show the PSOE as the party that best retains its voters, as it would repeat 84.6%. The PP, which normally heads this table, is now second with a loyalty of 83.2%. Vox’s data shows the path opened by the appearance of Alvise Pérez: the ultra-initiative steals 14.1% of the votes from them, more than the PP takes (7.3%).
Sumar is the party with the lowest voter loyalty. Only 59.9% of the voters of June 23 would vote again. One in five would go to the PSOE and almost 6% to Podemos.
With this data, the gap between the right and left blocs is 4.2 points, with the right boosted by the entry of Alvise Pérez’s party into that bloc.
As for the popularity of political leaders, the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, remains the best rated with 37.2% approval and an increase of eight tenths compared to last month. The Second Vice President of the Government and Minister of Labour, Yolanda Díaz, occupies the second position with 33.9% and also rises seven tenths.
The leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has fallen this month and has gone from 28.3% of the vote to 26% in July. He is thus far from competing for second place. The leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, is again the worst rated with 15.3% and a fall of almost two points in a month.
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