The GDP forecast for this year will be close to 2.5% and that for 2025 will also be raised above 2%
14 Jul. () –
The Government will approve this Tuesday in the Council of Ministers the new macroeconomic framework, which will raise the growth estimate for this year to around 2.5%, and will foreseeably place the estimate for 2025 above 2%, improving the current 1.9%.
Together with the new macroeconomic framework prepared by the Ministry of Economy, whose updated estimates will be closer to the forecasts of national and international analysts, the Executive will give the green light to the non-financial spending limit for 2025, known as the spending ceiling, at the proposal of the Ministry of Finance, thus kicking off the preparation of the Budgets for the coming year.
The approval of the new framework and the spending ceiling will take place just one day after the Fiscal and Financial Policy Council (CPFF) ratifies tomorrow Monday the deficit of 2.5% for 2025 and the fiscal path for the following two years, 2026 and 2027, when the deficit will also be below 3%, in accordance with the new fiscal rules of Brussels.
The Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, pointed out this week, in the Europa Press Informative Breakfasts, that the Government was falling “behind” in its forecasts and that it could not be “more pessimistic” than all the organisations “however prudent” it wants to be.
The minister justified this upward revision of the growth estimate by the “good performance” of the Spanish economy so far this year, and also following the lead of other national and international organisations, which are improving their estimates for Spain.
“Given the good performance of the economy in 2024, there is no other option but to update upwards because the performance is very robust. Whether we look at affiliations, the labour market, industrial production, consumer confidence, everything points, indeed, to the fact that the Spanish economy is going to have another good year,” Cuerpo stressed this week in statements to Capital Radio collected by Europa Press.
APPROVE THE 2025 BUDGETS IN A TIMELY MANNER
Once the Executive approves the spending ceiling, the agreement of the Council of Ministers must be ratified by the Cortes Generales, first by Congress and then by the Senate, but the Government has already ensured that the absolute majority of the PP in the Upper House cannot veto the spending ceiling, as has happened in other years, and to do so it has eliminated this power of the Senate in the Parity Law that has recently come into force.
In this way, the Executive, which does not have the necessary majority in Parliament, trusts that its usual government partners will ratify the spending ceiling and can thus begin to prepare the public accounts for next year, which it intends to approve in a timely manner, since this year those for 2023 have been extended.
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