Will he get the votes he needs?

A surprising result because both the Polish ultras Law and Justice (20 seats) like the Italians of 5 Star Movement (8 seats) also supported the German then. Von der Leyen suffered a strong vote of punishment because, by choosing her – who was not an official candidate nor had she campaigned – the heads of State and Government rejected the candidates proposed by the European Parliament. It will never be known for sure where the leaks came from because the vote is secret.

Next Thursday, Von der Leyen faces final European Parliament exam in Strasbourg again. As a result of a new agreement of the ‘grand coalition’, the European leaders appointed her for a second term as head of the Community Executive on June 27. The Italian Giorgia Meloni abstained and the Hungarian Viktor Orbán voted against. To be confirmed, the German needs an absolute majority in Parliament, which on this occasion is in 361 seats.

[Los líderes europeos cierran el acuerdo sobre el reparto de altos cargos sin el apoyo de Meloni]

If Von der Leyen does not get the necessary votes and her candidacy fails, that would trigger a unprecedented crisis in the European Union at the worst possible time: with two wars in the neighborhood (Ukraine and Gaza) and the real risk of Donald Trump returning to the White House. “There is no plan B”all the sources consulted confirm. The only thing the Treaty says is that the European Council must propose a new candidate within a month, who must be elected by the European Parliament by an absolute majority.

Aware of his delicate position, The German has cancelled her participation in the NATO summit in Washington and has spent the last week trying to convince as many MEPs as possible. Von der Leyen He has met separately with the Popular Party, the Socialists and the Liberalsbut also with the Greens. He has promised to take on part of their agenda. He has also held meetings with national delegations or even individual MPs. Every vote counts.

The Greens’ Dilemma

This time, Von der Leyen has run as the candidate of the Popular Party (which was the big winner on 9-J) and has campaigned. In addition, the Popular Party, Socialists and Liberals have renewed the grand coalition agreement. Between the three groups, they have a total of 401 seats. A figure that, according to the most veteran, It is not a sufficient cushion to cover possible defections: would need to collect at least another 20 votes as a safety net.

However, the great novelty of the tenth legislature is the advance of radical right and far-right forces. Although they have been divided into three different groups, they have a total of 187 seats (26% of the total). And one of the things they have in common is their majority rejection of Von der Leyen. “Patriots for Europe will not support her because she embodies everything that has gone wrong in the last legislature, such as punitive climate policies or the lack of migration control,” says their spokesman, Alonso de Mendoza. This group includes MEPs Viktor Orbán, Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini and Vox.

Also the group of radical left (which has 46 deputies) has already announced that will vote against the German“The reason is very simple: the left does not support the political ideology that Ursula von der Leyen defends,” said her spokeswoman, Sonja Giese.

So Von der Leyen has only two voting pools left. The first is the Greens group (53 seats), which turned its back on her in 2019, but could now join the grand coalition. “We haven’t made a decision yet,” says its spokesman, Simon McKeagney. “The Greens are eager to vote for Von der Leyen, they just need her to include a couple of their priorities in the programme, but she has to maintain a difficult balance so as not to lose support from the EPP itself,” explain parliamentary sources.

What will Meloni do?

The other big question mark is what the Brothers of Italy (24 seats), affiliated with the radical right-wing group European Conservatives and Reformists, will do. With their abstention at the European Council, Meloni left the door open to continue negotiating with Von der Leyen.

The Government of Rome aspires to an important economic vice-presidency in the next Community Executive. For the moment, nothing has transpired from this behind the scenes dialogue between the two most powerful women in Europe. A too visible agreement with Meloni would cause Von der Leyen to lose socialist and liberal votes.

The moment of truth for the German will come on Thursday, July 18 at 9 a.m. Von der Leyen will then have to outline her priorities for the next legislature, which must take into account the demands of the socialists and liberals. The leader of the socialist group, Iratxe Garciahas demanded that the position of Housing Commissioner be created and that progress be made on the European Green Deal and workers’ rights. The liberals, for their part, put the emphasis on defence policy and improving competitiveness.

The vote is scheduled for 13:00 and the counting is expected to be completed around an hour later. The alternative could not be more brutal. Either Ursula von der Leyen is re-elected and the renewal of the EU leadership is completed without problems, which would guarantee Stability and continuity in the 2024-2029 legislature. Or the European Union will plunge into a period of chaos and institutional crisis with no clear way out.